Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 041143
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
343 AM AKDT MON MAY 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. THEY INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST
THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS WITH MAJOR FEATURES NO MORE THAN 2 MB
DIFFERENT. WITH THE BENIGN PATTERN CONTINUING OVER THE AREA WILL
LEAN ON THE CURRENT FORECAST DATABASE AND ONLY MAKE MINOR CHANGES
BY NUDGING TO A BLEND OF THE MODELS.

ALOFT...553 DAM HIGH THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY...AND AFTER THE 540 DAM LOW OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
WEAKENS AND IS ABSORBED BY SHORTWAVE TUESDAY MORNING MOVING EAST
OVER THE ARCTIC COAST...THE HIGH WILL MERGE WITH THE RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND SLIDE EAST OVER THE INTERIOR BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A 516 DAM LOW OVER ADAK WILL REMAIN STATIONARY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST TO 300 NM SOUTH
OF SAND POINT BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE TURNING NORTH AND
MOVING OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA SATURDAY MORNING. RIDGING OVER
ALASKA WILL BE ORIENTED SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK
THEN TURN TO AN EAST TO WEST ORIENTATION OVER THE WEEKEND.

SURFACE...THERMAL TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE INTERIOR AND WILL
STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF
SOLAR HEATING. STARTING TO SEE A TRUE CONTINENTAL AIRMASS EFFECT
AS THE RIDGE OVER CANADA PERSISTS AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS LEND
TO GOOD SOLAR HEATING. RIDGING TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE
WILL HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF GAP WINDS THROUGH THE RANGE WITH
WINDS ENHANCED AS THEY MOVE INTO THE THERMAL TROUGH. DOWNSLOPE
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THINGS DRY IN THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR. A 1028
MB HIGH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA TUESDAY EVENING WILL MOVE TO THE
CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO BY THURSDAY EVENING. A 989 MB LOW SOUTH OF
ADAK WILL MOVE TO 500 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT BY THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN MOVE NORTH TO KODIAK ISLAND BY FRIDAY MORNING.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...STRATUS IS PRETTY WELL ENTRENCHED
FOR NOW...AND NOT SEEING ANY REASON FOR IT TO MOVE OUT. SOME WEAK
WEATHER FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND MAY KICK OFF SNOW
FLURRIES OR SHOWERS...BUT NOTHING LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH THE
STRATUS OUT OF THE AREA. STILL HAVING SOME ISSUES WITH DENSE FOG
EAST OF BARROW AND REALLY SEE NO REASON FOR THE TREND OF IT COMING
IN EACH NIGHT AND GOING AWAY DURING THE DAY TO END. TEMPERATURES
RELATIVELY FLAT...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME SLOW WARMUP FROM THE EAST
AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. VARIABLE WINDS TO 15 MPH THROUGH
THURSDAY.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...QUIET OUT HERE. SOME PATCHY
DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT IN THE COASTAL AREAS...BUT THAT SHOULD CLEAR
OUT BY NOON WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY.
A WEAK WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE LOWER YUKON DELTA ON
WEDNESDAY AND THAT MAY KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS...BUT AT THIS TIME
IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH. WINDS GENERALLY NORTHEAST TO 15 MPH.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER EACH DAY
AND HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE MID 60S FOR SOME AREAS BY
WEDNESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AND WITH THE AIRMASS
CONTINUING TO BE VERY DRY NOT MUCH CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. WINDS NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE
WILL STRENGTHEN A LITTLE AS THE WEEK GOES ON WITH GAP WINDS
DEVELOPING AND DOWNSLOPING INTO THE THERMAL TROUGH. WINDS GUSTING
TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. NORTH OF THE TANANA RIVER
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 MPH FROM THE NORTHEAST. STILL
SOME INDICATION OF DEWPOINTS BEING ON THE RISING A LITTLE AS THE
WEEK GOES ON.

EXTENDED FORECAST FOR DAYS 5 TO 8...QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS...BUT THE ONE THING THEY AGREE ON IS THE RIDGING ALOFT
WILL PERSIST OVER THE INTERIOR. THIS MEANS THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL
PERSIST OVER THE INTERIOR. DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. GAP WINDS IN THE ALASKA RANGE WILL
DEPEND ON HOW STRONG THE SURFACE RIDGE IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
ALASKA RANGE. THE ARCTIC AND WEST COAST WILL NOT SEE MUCH CHANGE
EITHER.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERMAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY REACHED THE TEENS IN A FEW AREAS SUNDAY...EXPECT A FEW
MORE AREAS TO REACH THE TEENS TODAY AND THAT TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK. WITH WINDS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY
WATCH FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS LATER IN THE WEEK. FORTUNATELY NOT SEEING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS WEEK. AS THE WEEK
CONTINUES LOOK FOR THE OVERNIGHT RECOVERY TO BE POOR TO FAIR MOST
NIGHTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...REPORTS INDICATE ICE SHOULD GET PAST EAGLE SOMETIME
THIS MORNING IF IT DID NOT HAPPEN OVERNIGHT. VIIRS APRFC RIVER
ICE AREAL EXTENT PRODUCT AT 03/2136Z INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF THE
YUKON RIVER IS MIXED ICE AND WATER DOWN TO AT LEAST TANANA.
REPORTS FROM OBSERVERS AND SPOTTERS INDICATE THAT WATER LEVELS
CONTINUE TO BE LOWER THAN NORMAL. RIVER WATCH MISSION WILL
CONTINUE TODAY WITH OBSERVERS FLYING OVER THE UPPER YUKON BETWEEN
THE FORT YUKON AND EAGLE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

&&

$$

SDB MAY 15


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