Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 061054
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
654 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH TODAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL MOVE ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE FRONT BRINGING SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE ACROSS NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON
THURSDAY BRINGING WARM AND DRY WEATHER WITH IT. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES REGION TO THE UPPER
MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS EARLY THIS
MORNING...ONE MOVING ACRS SC NY AND NE PA AND ANOTHER ONE ACRS NE
OH TO NW PA. THE FIRST BATCH OF PRECIP OVER SC NY/NE PA WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT IN ADVANCE OF A SHRT WAVE THAT WAS
MOVING ACRS THE ERN LAKES INTO NY STATE. THIS FEATURE WAS
SUPPORTING A SWRLY LOW-LEVEL WIND MAX WHICH WAS RISING
ISENTROPICALLY ACRS SC NY/NE PA AND LEADING TO A MORE STRATIFORM
RAIN. THIS WAVE WILL CONT EAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND TAKE THIS
PRECIPITATION EAST OF SC NY SO HAVE POPS FOR SHRA WINDING DOWN BY
ARND 12Z OR SO IN SC NY. RADAR SHOWS THE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP IN
NW OH AND NW PA HEADING JUST S OF E TWD NE PA AND SULLIVAN CO NY
PRIMARILY. BELIEVE THE RAP HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THE NEXT PRECIP SHIELD BASED ON CURRENT RADAR DATA WHEN LOOKING AT
THE OTHER HI RES MODEL REFLECTIVITIES. THE PRECIP WAS MORE
CONVECTIVE IN NATURE IN NE OH/NW PA AS IT WAS BEING SUPPORTED BY
ANTHR LOW- LEVEL WIND MAX TIED TO A SMALL SHRT WAVE AT MID- LEVELS
MAINLY. THERE WAS MORE LL THETA-E ADVTN IN THIS AREA THAT WAS
DESTABLIZING THE AMS ABV A SFC FRNT WHICH WAS ACRS SERN OH TO SW
PA. SO THE LL WIND MAX WAS ADVECTING MOISTURE ABV THE SFC FRNT
LEADING TO ELEVATED CONVECTIVE SHRA AND ISLD TSRA. THIS WIND MAX
MOVES E THIS MORNING AND THE MOISTURE ADVTN WEAKENS SOME BUT THERE
WILL BE INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT THRU 12Z OVER NE PA. SO WE
THINK THE PRECIP WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM-ISH IN NATURE AS IT
WORKS INTO NE PA AND SERN NY BTWN 12Z AND 15Z. BY 15Z...THERE WILL
BE ENUF MIXING IN THE BNDRY LAYER SOUTH OF THE PRECIP TO DISRUPT
THIS LL WIND MAX WHICH WILL IN EFFECT CUT OFF THE ISENTROPIC LIFT.
THUS WE EXPECT THIS PRECIP WILL WEAKEN AND FALL APART BY 15-18Z
THE LATEST.

THEN FOR THE AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE ENUF DRY AIR IN THE LL/S TO
PRECLUDE MUCH CUMULUS FORMATION FROM NC NY TO THE CATSKILLS.
FARTHER W...THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE LL MOISTURE SO I EXPECT
SCT-BKN CU AT THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER CLOUDS OVERHEAD. I DON/T
EXPECT ANY PRECIP AFTER 18Z OR SO IN NE PA/C NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL RDG AXIS WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE EASTERN LAKES WITH A SFC RDG OVHD. SKIES WILL BE PC TO MO
CLR. ON THURSDAY 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO +12C WHICH TRANSLATES WITH
MIXING TO MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

FOR THURSDAY NGT...AGAIN FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED. FOR
FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATES SCT SHRA AND TSRA FORMING WITH CAPES
BTWN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG CAPES. THE NAM ALSO HAS CAPES ABV 1000
J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. BUT THE FORCING WILL BE MINIMAL AS THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE UPPER RDG AXIS. I COULD SEE AN ISLD SHRA
OR TSRA FORMING WITH LOCALLY MESOSCALE CRCLNS BUT THESE WILL BE
ISLD SO HAVE SLGHT CHC POPS...MAINLY OUR WRN CWA WHERE DEWPOINTS
AND CAPES WILL BE A BIT HIGHER.

FRIDAY NGT LOOKS FAIR AND DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
425 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO EXTENDED FORECAST JUST
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. AREA WILL REMAIN
UNDER A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES AND JUST LOW CHC POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS HUMIDITIES
INCREASE. NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. DRY AND
COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

2 PM UPDATE...

FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKED GOOD. WARM AND DRY MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND THEN BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.

VERY WARM WITH HUMIDITY THIS WEEKEND UNDER A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE JUST OF THE CWA IN SE CANADA
WHICH STAYS THERE ALL OF THE LONG TERM. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS
WHERE THIS SETS UP AND STAYS. MODELS DIFFER ON THIS. WPC LEANS ON
EURO WHICH KEEPS THE BOUNDARY IN CANADA WHILE THE GFS DROPS IT
INTO PA SUN AND MON. HAVE FOLLOWED WPC AND HAVE CHC POPS FAR NORTH
SAT NGT THEN EVERYONE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING. AT KRME/KSYR, JUST VFR WITH SCT MID/HIGH CLOUDS THEN SKC
OVERNIGHT. A MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH NRN PA IS PRODUCING
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NE PA. AT KITH/KELM/KBGM, CIGS AROUND 5K FT
WILL LIFT AND SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY SKC
OVERNIGHT. AT KELM, IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 09Z-12Z.
AT KAVP, A ROUND OF MVFR/VFR SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL
THROUGH MID MORNING. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND SCATTERED OUT
LATE TODAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...RRM


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