Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 020012
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
712 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NOTHING HAS DEVELOPED ON RADAR SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...PROBABLY
DUE TO PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING BELOW ONE INCH.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...FROM NEAR TUSCALOOSA TO TROY ALABAMA. IF
ANYTHING DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING...IT WILL LIKELY BE
NEAR THIS BOUNDARY...BUT LOWERED RAIN CHANCES TO 20 PERCENT OR
LESS. DESPITE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY...MOISTURE
ABOVE 850MB WILL REMAIN LIMITED AND THIS WILL HINDER CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. THERE MAY BE A FEW WEAK IMPULSES PASSING TO THE NORTH
OF ALABAMA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL MAINTAIN SMALL
RAIN CHANCES FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-20. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER NORTHWEST ALABAMA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A WARM NOSE AROUND 800MB
WILL CAP CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

A PRE- FRONTAL SQUALL LINE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA FRIDAY
EVENING AND SOUTH ALABAMA AFTER MIDNIGHT. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
STORMS. GFS/NAM POINT SOUNDINGS FOR AREAS ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA
INDICATE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 50-55 KNOTS AND 0-3 SRH VALUES
OF 250-300 M2/S2. DESPITE SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S...CAPE VALUE ARE GENERALLY BELOW 1000
J/KG...MAINLY TO WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT. CAPE VALUES AND SHEAR
DECREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SO THE
DAY3 SLIGHT RISK AREA ISSUED BY SPC DOES NOT EXTEND SOUTH OF I-20.
THE MAIN THREAT TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FROM 3PM UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...AND EXPECT CLEARING SKIES ALONG WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
LAST THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL INCREASE QUICKLY FROM THE
WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ON MONDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AREAWIDE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT. ONCE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF ALABAMA...
THE AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS EVENING
ACROSS FAR WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ACTIVITY AT ANY
TERMINAL. AS THE SUN SETS...ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SH OR TS CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT OVERNIGHT DUE TO BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. CONFIDENCE AND RAIN
CHANCES AT ANY ONE TERMINAL ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

FOR TONIGHT...THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF LOW CIGS/VIS LATE TONIGHT
AND NEAR SUNRISE...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF RAINFALL TODAY...DO NOT
EXPECT CONDITIONS BELOW MVFR. LOW STRATUS DECK ATTEMPTS TO BUILD
INTO EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
BEST MOISTURE AND LEFT REMAINING EAST OF ANB AND TOI AT THIS TIME.
FOG AND ANY LOW STRATUS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL
INCREASE FORM THE SOUTH...WITH GUSTS TO 18KTS POSSIBLE.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     57  79  56  78  45 /  10  40  20  40  80
ANNISTON    58  79  58  79  48 /  10  30  10  30  70
BIRMINGHAM  60  80  60  80  46 /  20  30  10  40  80
TUSCALOOSA  61  83  62  81  47 /  20  30  10  50  80
CALERA      60  82  61  80  48 /  20  30  10  30  70
AUBURN      59  80  57  81  51 /  20  20  10  10  50
MONTGOMERY  61  84  59  83  52 /  20  20  10  10  60
TROY        60  84  58  84  54 /  20  20  10  10  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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