Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 020811
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
411 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE MOVING INTO THE REGION
WITH READINGS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPING
AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. THE RAIN QUICKLY COMES TO
AN END EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
REMAINING OVER THE AREA...EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT
OF THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND TRACK INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT COLDER AIR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW ON
SATURDAY WILL CHANGE THE RAIN OVER TO SNOW. THE MOUNTAINS AND
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF VERMONT WILL LIKELY SEE
A FEW INCHES OF SNOW BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 411 AM EDT THURSDAY...WE ARE STILL HOLDING ONTO THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS HELPING TO KEEP
LOW DEW POINTS OVER THE AREA AND AS MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT...THE DRY AIR IS WINNING OUT AND THE
ABILITY TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TODAY. COULD
SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES IN THIS MORNING...
BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. AS WE
GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR TODAY...MIXING WILL DEVELOP AND GUSTY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH THE INFLUX OF
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 411 AM EDT THURSDAY...A MORE ACTIVE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE MOISTENED
SUFFICIENTLY AT THAT TIME TO BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE
ENTIRE AREA. LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPING TOWARD
MIDNIGHT...BUT THEN ENDING BY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD...SO NO SNOW IS EXPECTED.
PRONOUNCED WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
ON FRIDAY WITH NO REAL FORCING TO ENHANCE ANY PRECIPITATION.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT MOVE IN AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WHICH WOULD BE THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR. ATTENTION TURNS TO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL BE INTENSIFYING...SO WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. THERMAL PROFILE AT
THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL SUPPORT ALL AREAS GETTING
RAIN...BUT THEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CRASHING AS NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. AS
TEMPERATURES FALL...THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT INTO
VERMONT...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT.
BOTTOM LINE...THE LARGER VALLEYS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME
ACCUMULATING BECAUSE ROADS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO MELT THE INITIAL
SNOW...SO PERHAPS A DUSTING TO AN INCH. IT WILL BE THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT THAT COULD BE
LOOKING AT 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW BY LATE IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
THUS THIS SITUATION WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL
HEADLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 411 AM EDT THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE WET AND COOL FOR EARLY APRIL COMPARED TO NORMAL. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEARLY STATIONARY WILL BE SET UP SOUTH OF OUR
REGION...ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. WE WILL BE STUCK ON THE COLD SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY AND
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AND SYSTEMS MOVE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BRINGING
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW.

A WEAK LOW MOVES NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...THEREFORE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ANOTHER WEAK LOW MOVES
SOUTH OF OUR REGION. MORE LARGE SCALE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA OUT OF CANADA BRINGING A REPRIEVE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
INCREASING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPACT TO AVIATION MAINLY IN
THE SECOND HALF OF THIS TAF FORECAST.

VFR SKC TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST. REPLACING IT WILL BE A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD MOSTLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
BETWEEN 08-12Z. SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SHOWERS IN THAT SAME PERIOD BUT HAVE DISCOUNTED THAT BASED ON VERY
DRY LOW-LEVELS. WINDS INITIALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE BUT WILL TEND
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH 12Z. INITIAL WARM-FRONTAL
MID CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY MID MORNING. LOW-LEVEL WIND
FIELDS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN UP TO 35-40 KNOTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON,
AND TIMING WHEN FRONTAL INVERSION MIXES OUT WILL DETERMINE WHEN
SOME OF THOSE WINDS WILL MIX DOWN. INDICATED THIS GENERALLY 14-16Z
AT WHICH POINT GUSTS COULD REACH UP TO 28 KNOTS. SOME LIMITED
POTENTIAL FOR LLWS IF FRONTAL INVERSION IS SLOWER TO MIX OUT THAN
CURRENT INDICATIONS. CEILINGS LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARD 00Z
FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY TO 12Z FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM.

12Z FRIDAY-06Z SATURDAY...VFR.

06Z SATURDAY-00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN AND SNOW.

00Z SUNDAY-00Z MONDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES


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