Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 012328
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
728 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THE HIGH
WILL BE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. A WARM FRONT WILL ALSO BE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
DRY SURFACE TROUGH/LEADING EDGE OF DEWPOINT GRADIENT HAS PUSHED
SOUTH TO THE SW FORECAST AREA (FA)...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
BUILDING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. DIURNAL CU/SCU ACROSS GA COUNTIES IN
THE PROCESS OF DISSIPATING. MODELS INDICATE SURFACE TROUGH TO SHIFT
A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THIS EVENING THEN STALL OVERNIGHT...WHILE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST TO NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND JUST OFFSHORE.
UPPER ENERGY CURRENTLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISS VALLEY LATE TONIGHT...WHILE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST INTO OUR REGION. SATELLITE LOOPS SUGGEST
INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS LATE TONIGHT...BUT LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BEST ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...AND ANY ASSOCIATED
PRECIP...APPEARS WILL REMAIN WEST OF OUR FA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL DIRECT AN
ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE MODELS DISPLAY A WARM FRONT IN GEORGIA WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
IN THE FORECAST AREA. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOWN BY
THE NAM AND GFS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS
MOS SUPPORT POPS OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT WITH THE GREATER CHANCE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND NEAR THE TIME
OF MAXIMUM HEATING. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH PART WHERE THE NAM LOWERS
SURFACE-BASED LI/S TO NEAR -4.

THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT FOR PRECIP ON
FRIDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NEARLY ZONAL AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY.
WENT WITH NEAR GUIDANCE CONSENSUS WITH A DRY FORECAST AND HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S ON FRIDAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURN FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN SC.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MOVES OFF THE COAST AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WE SHOULD SEE A
WARMING TREND WITH RISING HEIGHTS.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL SC INTO SOUTHWEST GA WILL
MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.
WE KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN DRY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH DRIER AIR
MOVES IN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD
BE CENTERED OVER THE MIDLANDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING. THE
GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40. THE DRY AIR
MASS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 70.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO RETURN. ONSHORE FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WARRANTS AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY. MORE INSTABILITY
TUESDAY COUPLED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT SO WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY WEDNESDAY THE GFS HAS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSING OUR AREA. THE ECMWF HOLDS THE FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH
WITH A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO MODEL INCONSISTENCIES...WILL FORECAST A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO THE LOWER 80S BY
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. NEAR NORMAL LOWS IN THE 40S
SUNDAY NIGHT WARM INTO THE 50S MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MUCH OF TONIGHT. POSSIBLE MVFR CEILING IN
THE CSRA TOWARDS MORNING.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH
RIVER AREA THIS EVENING. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME SCATTERED
MID-LEVEL CU ACROSS THE CSRA...WITH CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. MODELS
BEGIN TO INDICATE RETURN MOISTURE ALONG THE CSRA TOWARDS SUNRISE
ON THURSDAY...WITH CEILINGS DEVELOPING AROUND 2500 FT BY SUNRISE.
HAVE TRENDED THAT WAY WITH AGS/DNL. REMAINING SITES APPEAR TO
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WILL VEER TO SOUTHERLY BY LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





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