Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 031003
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
603 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL MAINE WILL
LIFT NORTH TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
603 AM UPDATE...WEB CAMS ALONG THE COAST SHOWING LOW CLOUD AND
FOG IN SPOTS IN HANCOCK COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. MORE WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUD AND FOG ALONG THE MID COAST OF MAINE. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY/WX GRIDS BASED ON THE WEB CAMS AND THE FIRST
FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE OTHER ELEMENTS BASED ON THE 6 AM
OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WEAK AN ILL-DEFINED FRONT THAT HAS STALLED OUT ACROSS CENTRAL
MAINE WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. THE AIR
MASS CONTINUES TO WARM. THE 925 MB TEMP ON THE 00Z KCAR SOUNDING
WAS +12C AND MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER 1-2C OF WARMING TODAY. THE
HIGH TEMPERATURE YESTERDAY WAS 70F AT CARIBOU...AND WITH A MILDER
START TO THE DAY AND WARMER AIR MASS THERE IS NO REASON THAT
TEMPS WILL NOT BE AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER FOR MOST
INLAND AREAS TODAY. USED YESTERDAYS HIGHS AS A STARTING POINT AND
RAISED THEM A COUPLE MORE DEGREES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS CONSIDERABLY COOLER ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST WILL LIKELY PEAK OUT BETWEEN NOON AND
2 PM AND WILL THEN FALL WITH MOST AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
TO DROP INTO THE 40S BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR THE MOST PART
EXPECT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. THERE WILL BE SOME LOW
CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST...AND A BIT MORE CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY TOUCH OFF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. THERE IS ENOUGH OF A COLD POOL
ALOFT THAT THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER FROM 16-20Z ACROSS JUST
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS COUNTY.
ANY SHOWERS WILL DIE OFF QUICKLY EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A MILD NIGHT WITH SW FLOW. THE COOLEST TEMPS LIKELY
WILL BE ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. LOWS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST ON
MONDAY, PLACING THE REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. THESE SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL USHER WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION; TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON INLAND, WITH SOME LOCATIONS
POSSIBLY HITTING 80. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE COAST, WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S OWING TO THE COOL
ONSHORE FLOW. BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 30 MPH OR MORE, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MAINE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY AND CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. AS
SUCH, WHILE MUCH OF MONDAY WILL REMAIN DRY, THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR NORTHERN REGIONS.
THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED INSTABILITY; WHILE A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CAN`T BE RULED
OUT, COVERAGE ISN`T ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. THE FRONT
WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT PASSES THROUGH, SO THE GREATEST COVERAGE
AND HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH. QPF WILL BE
A TENTH OF AN INCH AT MOST, WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

IN SPITE OF LOTS OF SUNSHINE, TUESDAY WILL BE BE QUITE A BIT COOLER
IN MANY LOCATIONS. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER 60S IN THE NORTH
TO AROUND 70 DOWNEAST. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT, WHICH MEANS COASTAL AREAS WILL FINALLY SEE SOME WARMER
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AGAIN, THOUGH NOT QUITE TO THE SAME
EXTENT AS ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER WEAKER COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE STATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOL
AND DRY CANADIAN AIR MASS. THIS HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT FAIR
WEATHER AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL ESPECIALLY BE A BIT ON THE
COOL SIDE OWING TO THE DRIER AIRMASS, CLEAR SKIES, AND RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE UNSETTLED FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. A WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS LOW
PRESSURE SLIDES UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD HUDSON BAY. THIS
WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS TO THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OUTSIDE OF ANY EARLY MORNING
AND LATE NIGHT LOW CLOUDS THAT COULD TEMPORARILY PRODUCE LOW
CEILINGS AT KBHB. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY THAT
COULD PRODUCE SOME BRIEFLY ERRATIC WIND GUSTS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE TIME MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. ONLY PERIOD OF CONCERN IS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS. NORTHERN AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING ANY
PRECIPITATION, ALONG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE WIND AND SEAS
REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH, WITH WAVES BUILDING TO AROUND 5
FT IN RESPONSE. ONCE THE FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TUESDAY MORNING,
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND LESSEN, AS WILL THE WAVES. AT THIS
TIME, CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE MARGINAL, BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR TRENDS TO DETERMINE IF AN ADVISORY IS NECESSARY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
JUST PRIOR TO GREEN-UP THERE WILL BE ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK. A WARM AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY WITH COOLING TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 30-35 PCT, AND WILL LIKELY
DROP BELOW 30 PCT TUESDAY. FOR INLAND AREAS THE COMBINATION OF THE
LOW RH`S AND GUSTY WIND IN THE AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER THREAT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A SPS FOR FIRE DANGER OR
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MIGHT BE REQUIRED. FOR NOW WILL MAKE MENTION
OF THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK AND WILL ALSO MENTION IN THE MORNING SOCIAL MEDIA POSTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE HIGH TEMP YESTERDAY AT CARIBOU WAS 70 DEGREES.
THIS WAS THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR WITH A HIGH AOA 70 DEGREES. THE
30-YEAR AVERAGE DATE FOR THE 1ST 70 DEGREE DAY AT CARIBOU IS MAY
2ND.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/HASTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...CB
CLIMATE...CB


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