Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 040557
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
157 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY.
A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND ARRIVE
IN THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. THE FRONT
SHOULD MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AGAIN TONIGHT. SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BUT MOST OF
THESE REMAIN THIN. THE CONVECTION NEAR CHICAGO SHOULD DISSIPATE AS
IT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. EVEN IF SOME OF IT DOES
HOLD TOGETHER IT SHOULD PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. TEMPS LOOK
FINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL LOSE MOMENTUM AND THE CHALLENGE IS TO
PIN DOWN HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT CAN PUSH. ASIDE FROM SOME DEBRIS
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A POP UP MORNING SHOWER IN NORTHWEST OHIO...ONE
WOULD EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE DAY GOES ON...ESPECIALLY AS A NICE SHORT WAVE ADVANCES
FROM THE WEST AND THE FRONT APPROACHES LATER IN THE DAY. QUITE A BIT
MORE INSTABILITY LIKELY TO OUR WEST AND THE BETTER SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT SHOULD STAY TO THE WEST. WE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SOME
MODERATE CAPE AND THE DYNAMICS WILL INCREASE AS THE SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES. THE SHEAR IS NOT PROGGED TO BE VERY HIGH AND WE WILL
ALSO START OUT RATHER DRY AND STABLE. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. HIGHS WELL IN THE 70S/AROUND 80.

MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE THE FRONT SAGGING SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE
BEFORE TUESDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE A CLOUDIER DAY. NOT
SURE HOW MANY SHOWERS THERE WILL BE. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED
TO SLIDE EASTWARD...ALMOST LIKE A WAVE ON THE FRONT. WILL KEEP
SHOWERS "LIKELY" AND CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT UNCERTAIN DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS. WILL FORECAST SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ESPECIALLY
NEAR LAKE ERIE.

I SUSPECT THE FRONT WILL NOT MAKE MUCH PROGRESS BACK NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. THE RIDGE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BUILD THOUGH AND THIS WILL
USUALLY LEAD TO A DIMINISHING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS RAGING FROM THE
UPPER 70S SOUTH TO THE UPPER 60S NEAR LAKE ERIE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON THURSDAY WITH MODELS SIMILAR SHOWING A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH AN
IMPULSE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDWEST TOWARDS THE WESTERN
LAKES. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE IN THE DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA
REGION WITH A WARM FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN OHIO. THE SURFACE
LOW AND UPPER IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO CANADA THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WHILE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO/THROUGH THE
REGION. WHILE THERE COULD BE AN AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY...THE PATTERN DOESNT LOOK PARTICULARLY VOLATILE
SO WILL KEEP DRY FOR NOW. SATURDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE
LOW WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.  SATURDAY MORNING THE
FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO NEAR CHICAGO.
DEEP SWLY FLOW OFF THE GLFMX WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE NORTH
INTO THE AREA. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE FRONT WILL EITHER MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NNW AND STALL OR REMAIN JUST TO OUR NNW. FOR
NOW GIVEN THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY UPPER 70S WITH A FEW 80S SOUTH AND OF
COURSE COOLER NEAR THE LAKE. USED WPC/ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR GRAPHICS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
MOVE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND WILL SPREAD SOME
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS TO THE REGION FOR TODAY. BELIEVE THE
INITIAL SURGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY THIS MORNING AS IT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE INTO NW OHIO.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE NEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DRIFT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN THE CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP AND HAVE A 6 HOUR WINDOW OF TIME WHEN THE THUNDER MAY
OCCUR (VCTS). HOWEVER WE DID ATTEMPT TO PROVIDE A BEST 2 HOUR WINDOW FOR
CONVECTION FOR EACH LOCATION. THIS 2 HOUR WINDOW IS WHERE WE
PLACED THE IFR CONDITIONS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SERN STATES WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THE
FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT TURNING STATIONARY
EAST/WEST ACROSS NRN OR CENTRAL OHIO TUESDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES. EXPECTING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
5 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  WINDS WILL TURN EAST TO
NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY LASTING THROUGH
MID WEEK. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE LAKE AS A WARM FRONT TURNING WINDS SOUTHEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THEN SOUTH FRIDAY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS. BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...TK






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