Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 070514
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1214 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS ARE PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES NOW WITH BASES BELOW
1500 FEET. WITH A LITTLE LESS WIND TONIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE IFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS PERSISTING INTO THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. HI-RES MODEL OUTPUT IS SHOWING A BIT BETTER
COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITY AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE
THE MENTION OF VCSH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET TO VFR TODAY...AND CONTINUED
MVFR/IFR IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 944 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015/

UPDATE...
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REMINDER OF THIS EVENING WILL BE
CONVECTION CHANCES OUT WEST ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. SO FAR...
THE STRONGEST STORMS HAVE REMAINED WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. WE/LL
NEED TO MONITOR THE CELL NORTHWEST OF EAGLE PASS AS IT MAY IMPACT
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MAVERICK COUNTY. FOR THE REST OF THIS
EVENING...WE KEPT A 30% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE INTO THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY. FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WE TRIMMED POPS BACK TO 20% FOR MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION
BEING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND WESTERN HILL
COUNTRY. SOME OF THE EARLIER HI-RES MODELS SUGGESTED A MORE
ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION (MCS) COULD MOVE INTO THE HILL
COUNTRY TOMORROW MORNING. THE LATEST RUNS HAVE STARTED TO BACK
AWAY FROM THIS TREND...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...WE/LL LEAVE A 30%
CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE WINDS... DEW
POINTS AND HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015/

AVIATION... /00Z TAF UPDATE/

A FEW STORMS OVER NRN MEXICO COULD PROVIDE SOME TURBULENCE ON
APPROACHES TO DRT...BUT OTHERWISE CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTION INTO THE TAF PERIODS.
CONVECTION OVER WEST CENTRAL TX IS FORECAST BY THE MOST RECENT OF
HRRR RUNS TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL TX...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
HI-RES MODEL TRENDS AGAIN TONIGHT. WITHOUT THE PRESENCE OF DEEP
CONVECTION...HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD DROP LOW CLOUDS INTO IFR
LEVELS LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT FOG OR HAZE TO MIX WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES BY MORNING. THE NAM AND GFS SKIES FOR DAYTIME THURSDAY LOOK
PRETTY PESSIMISTIC...SO WILL FAVOR A SLIGHTLY MORE PESSIMISTIC
VERSION OF PERSISTENCE INSTEAD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
HEATING CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 70S BASED ON LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THIS TREND
IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH CAPE VALUES
IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG AND A WEAK CAP ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS. AREA RADARS ARE SHOWING FEW STRONG CELLS ON-GOING AHEAD OF
A DRY-LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM LAKEVIEW SOUTHWESTWARD TO FORT
STOCKTON. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WHILE SENDING SHORT-WAVE
PULSES ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND OVER PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE AND
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON...MORE STORMS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO FIRE UP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRY-LINE AND
OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS. THESE STORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AS THEY PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST AND
AFFECT PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS FOR ANY STORM THAT
FORMS WILL BE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL. ALSO...SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT DIMINISHES LATE THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS CAN NOT BE RULE OUT.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A WET PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
HOWEVER...SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD AFFECT THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE HILL COUNTRY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONCE...AGAIN...MAIN
WEATHER THREATS WILL BE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  83  71  86  72 /  30  40  40  50  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  83  71  86  72 /  30  40  40  50  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     72  83  71  85  72 /  20  30  40  40  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  81  69  83  69 /  30  40  30  60  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           72  88  71  91  69 /  20  30  30  30  40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        71  82  70  84  70 /  30  40  40  60  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             72  85  71  87  71 /  20  40  40  40  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  83  71  85  72 /  20  40  40  40  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  84  73  86  74 /  20  30  40  30  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       72  84  71  85  72 /  20  40  40  40  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  84  72  86  73 /  20  30  40  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...15


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