Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 070603
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
203 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015/

UPDATE...
FORECAST STILL ON TRACK THIS EVENING. NO MAJOR GRID CHANGES AT
THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
SHORT TERM BUT IT DOES BREAK DOWN WITH APPROACHING TROPICAL SYSTEM.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD... EVEN WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT AND LOCATION OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING JUST
OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL. WITH THE LOCATION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE
REGION... EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUE OVER THE AREA BUT WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. INCREASED ATLANTIC
MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED A FEW MORE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP TODAY AND IT WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY WITH MAINLY SCT TO BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPECTED. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
OVER THE NE GA MOUNTAINS THURSDAY DUE TO UPSLOPING FLOW BUT NO
SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED. INSTABILITIES DO INCREASE A BIT THU ACROSS
THAT AREA BUT NOTHING MAJOR WITH HIGH PRESSURE KEEP THINGS SUBDUED.
AS FAR AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM GOES...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE
MAIN LOW CENTER CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. BY 18Z THU IT SHOULD BE JUST OFF THE GA/SC COAST. IT
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH 12Z FRI TO JUST OFF
THE SC COAST JUST SE OF MYRTLE BEACH. GA STAYS ON THE CLEAN SIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM AND SHOULD NOT BE DIRECTLY AFFECTED FROM THIS IN THE
SHORT TERM.

01

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST GRIDS WITH THIS
CYCLE. STILL NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN A BIT SCATTERED WITH RESPECT TO THIS
SYSTEM...BUT ALL ARE POINTING TO SOME DEGREE OF DEEPENING AS THE LOW
DRIFTS NORTH ALONG OR JUST OFF THE GA/SC COAST. MAY SEE ENOUGH
MOISTURE PUSHED INTO THE FAR EAST FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY
FRIDAY. EARLY NEXT WEEK...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DRAGGING A
FRONT THROUGH THE STATE WITH WEAKENING UPPER RIDGING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SCATTERED CONVECTION. UPPER DYNAMICS
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION AND THERE IS STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW MUCH DRY AIR WE SEE IN THE WAKE OF THE
ATLANTIC SYSTEM SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS AT BEST.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH FEW050 EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS CONTINUE
OUT OF THE EAST TO NORTHEAST AT GENERALLY 5KTS OR LESS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          84  58  84  63 /   0   5  20  10
ATLANTA         84  61  84  65 /   5   0  10   5
BLAIRSVILLE     80  55  81  58 /  20   5  10  10
CARTERSVILLE    84  56  85  61 /   5   0   5   5
COLUMBUS        86  57  88  63 /   0   0   5   5
GAINESVILLE     82  59  83  63 /   5   0  20  10
MACON           85  57  87  63 /   0   0  10   5
ROME            85  56  86  60 /   5   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  84  57  85  61 /   5   0  10   5
VIDALIA         83  62  84  65 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATWELL
AVIATION...


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