Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 030356
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
855 PM MST SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DECREASED
IN COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS WILL
LINGER IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH MOVING
NORTHWARD THROUGH ARIZONA. OTHERWISE WIDELY SCATTERED HIGH BASED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ON SUNDAY MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
BRING HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BREEZY AND
CONTINUED COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH BASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE DECREASED
AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING WITH SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ROAMING
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING NORTHWARD
THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS EVENING. DYNAMIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH WILL CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. SCATTERED HIGH BASED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY WITH THE BEST
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING FROM EARLY AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. A
STRONGER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

THE AFTERNOON FORECAST GRID PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD, NO EVENING UPDATES.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO CROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. THIS SYSTEM WILL COOL UPPER
LEVEL TEMPERATURES FURTHER INCREASING INSTABILITY AND CAUSING GOOD
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THE
GREATEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO FALL FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM
SOUTH...NEAREST THE LOW...WITH MANY LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING ANYWHERE
FROM 0.20 TO 0.50 INCHES OF RAIN. POPS WERE RAISED TO THE 50-70
PERCENT RANGE MONDAY FOR THESE AREAS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY ONWARD...THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS GREATLY DIMINISH ON
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY IN FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA. LONGER TERM
MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD AFFECT THE REGION
IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME. RIGHT NOW THE MAIN EFFECTS WOULD
LIKELY BE GUSTY WINDS, WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN
NW ARIZONA. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. ON SUNDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP MAINLY FROM EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. ERRATIC AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN IMPACT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED HIGH BASED CONVECTION TO WIND DOWN AFTER
SUNSET TONIGHT ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. ON
SUNDAY...MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE
AS A WEAK UPPER LOW APPROACHES OUR AREA. DAYTIME SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
10 TO 20 MPH WINDS ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS....GUSTS TO 35 MPH
POSSIBLE DUE TO CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS.

.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MEANDER ACROSS
ARIZONA DURING THIS PERIOD. EXPECT A COOLING TREND AND AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WETTING PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST FOR YAVAPAI AND MOST OF COCONINO COUNTY MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE NORTHLAND ON
THURSDAY BRINGING GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BOHLIN/JJ
AVIATION...BOHLIN
FIRE WEATHER...DL


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