Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000
FXUS61 KGYX 060104 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KGYX
904 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST FRIDAY ALLOWING MOISTURE
TO RETURN NORTH. WITH FRONT STALLED NEAR THE AREA SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. HAVE INGESTED LATEST MESONET
DATA. TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING QUICKLY IN DRY AIRMASS.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO KEEP GRIDS FRESH
THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE STILL GUSTING OVER 15 MPH AND RH VALUES
ARE LOW KEEPING WILDFIRES GOING. LOWERED DEW POINTS FOR TOMORROW
BASED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND LIKELIHOOD OF A WELL MIXED
ENVIRONMENT THAT MOS GUIDANCE IS LIKELY UNDERFORECASTING. ALSO
RERAN FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAK BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTH ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NEW
INTO EASTERN MAINE...OTHERWISE THE SURFACE RIDGE AND WARM DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES TO DOMINATE. THE WESTERLY WIND FIELD INCREASES
NEAR THE BOUNDARY...AND COMBINED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
SHOULD PRODUCE RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND MUCH OF MAINE ONCE AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE MAINLY IN THE 70S.

THEN...ANOTHER MAINLY CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED UNDER
THE RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED BASED ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS.
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EWD THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK. STILL SOME
SIGNS HIGH PRES TRIES TO BUILD DOWN THRU THE MARITIMES EARLY IN
THE WEEKEND...WHICH COULD SEND BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OUR WAY. AT THE
VERY LEAST ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP COASTLINE COOLER THAN INTERIOR
LOCATIONS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK UPPER RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE ERN CONUS
AND A SERIES OF S/WV TROFS WILL ROUND THE TOP TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED NEARBY...ANY OF THESE
WAVES COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. THE TIMING OF ANY
SUCH FEATURE IS LOW CONFIDENCE...SO IT IS DIFFICULT TO REMOVE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS ANY DAY IN THE LATER PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS HINTING THAT THE RIDGING BREAKS DOWN AND ALLOWS
A STRONGER SYSTEM TO EJECT EWD FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH AGAIN CONFIDENCE IN HOW MODELS BREAK RIDGING DOWN IS
LOW CONFIDENCE. MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS POP AT LOW LIKELY FOR
NOW...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE
EXTENDED. MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING FRONT MAY STALL OVER OR
NEAR THE REGION. THIS COULD BRING THE THREAT OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS...WHICH WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. THIS
IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS TIME THOUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS PICK UP TOMORROW AS THE WEAK FRONT SINKS
SOUTHWARD...BUT EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS. WILL BE MONITORING THE POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT
RELATIVE TO THE WATERS...AS A FURTHER S SET UP COULD LEAD TO
PROLONGED PERIOD OF NELY FLOW AND SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 5 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS THROUGH 8 PM FOR ALL AREAS INCLUDING
THE COAST. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THROUGH THIS EVENING.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY...SO AN ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
WINDS AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SUGGEST RED
FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN HALF OF NEW HAMPSHIRE
AS WELL AS MUCH OF MAINE. ELSEWHERE...FIRE DANGER SHOULD BE A BIT
LESS BUT STILL HIGH. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR MUCH
OF MY CWA FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ANYONE CONSIDERING OUTSIDE BURNING SHOULD MONITOR LATER STATEMENTS
FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AS WELL AS LOCAL AND STATE OFFICIALS
BEFORE BURNING.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-019>022-024>028.
NH...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR NHZ001>006.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$


UPDATE...HANES


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