Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 052007
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
307 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SE TX IN A NARROW CORRIDOR OF DEEPER MOISTURE. AIR MASS IS
NOT QUITE AS WORKED OVER THE W-SW ZONES AND FEEL ACTIVITY WILL
DRIFT TOWARD THE UNMODIFIED AIR FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN AND
EVENING. PRECIP SHOULD END EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE DISTURBANCE
THAT MOVED INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST MERGES WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH. A RIBBON OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE W-SW
ZONES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CAN`T REALLY FIND A SFC TRIGGER AND UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE LESS DIVERGENT TOMORROW BUT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE
POPS OUT WEST DUE TO THE HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT. THE HRRR AND THE
RAP ARE AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING A BAND OF SHOWERS OVER THE SW
ZONES LATE TONIGHT IN THE AXIS OF DEEPER MSTR. THE NAM SOUNDINGS
ON WEDNESDAY LOOK FAIRLY POTENT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
WITH CAPE VALUES ABOVE 3000...LI VALUES ARE -8 AND A WEAK INVERTED
V SIGNATURE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GULF AMPLIFIES INTO SE
TX THU-SAT WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING WELL
TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. WESTERN AREAS COULD GET CLIPPED BY A
DISTURBANCE OR TWO BUT FOR THE MOST PART...FEEL SE TX WILL REMAIN
WARM AND HUMID BUT GENERALLY RAIN FREE.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE GULF IS FLATTENED A BIT AND NUDGED TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD
BRING SOME OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER A BIT FURTHER EAST SUN-TUE. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALSO APPROACH SE TX ON TUESDAY AND PROBABLY
STALL SOMEWHERE OVER THE AREA BEFORE RETREATING NORTH. LOOKS LIKE
MON/TUE COULD BECOME ACTIVE WITH PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA. 43

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS BEING OBSERVED IN THE BAYS AND SLIGHTLY UNDER
CRITERIA OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SPEEDS WILL
EVENTUALLY BUMP UP TO 20KTS OFFSHORE LATER THIS EVENING SO AM GOING
TO HOIST THE SCA FLAGS FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL THRU THE WEEKEND WITH INTERMITTENT
PERIODS WHEREAS CAUTION FLAGS MIGHT BE REQUIRED.

TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 1-1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. THIS ALONG WITH
ELEVATED SEAS AND SURF WILL PRODUCE STRONGER THAN NORMAL RIP
CURRENTS (AS WAS OBSERVED BY GALVESTON BEACH PATROL TODAY) THRU
MIDWEEK.  47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      69  84  71  84  71 /  30  30  20  30  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              71  84  72  86  72 /  20  20  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            73  81  74  81  75 /  20  20  10  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$



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