Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 260525
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
125 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL WORK INTO
THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE FA THIS EVENING.
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA WITH JUST LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA. MOST OF THE SEVERE THREAT WILL STAY SOUTH OF
THE AREA HOWEVER AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT.

EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE
30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FA DO NOT BELIEVE FROST
WILL BE AN ISSUE AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP OVERNIGHT AND
THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
WITH CAA ONLY EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SUNDAY. ALSO WITH CAA AND WINDS OFF OF LAKE ERIE
EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF CU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. DUE
TO THIS WENT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES SUNDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER DECIDED TO LEAVE
OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

A SHORT WAVE WORKING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
KEEP SOME CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THIS
HAVE KEPT FROST MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 30S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BRING A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER ESPECIALLY TO EASTERN COUNTIES BUT AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS
THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL WITH THE FORECAST NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK WHEN AN UPPER
RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD IN. STRONGEST SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A FEW
SHOWERS COULD EVENTUALLY DEVELOP. BEYOND THAT THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS
MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK WITH READINGS GETTING ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS AT CVG AND LUK WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
UNTIL LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST. REST OF TAF SITES WILL
SEE CONTINUED VFR...WITH CLOUDS EVENTUALLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE
AT ALL SITES AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WORK IN FROM THE
NORTH. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO NORTH...WITH A FEW GUSTS
NEAR 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE UNTIL LATER IN THE FORECAST WHEN SPEEDS
WILL SUBSIDE UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CONIGLIO





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