Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 210053
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
853 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...
PRE-FRONTAL SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY ALL THE WAY IN THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC NOW AND JUST A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...AND WITH ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY UPSTREAM
STRETCHING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN
GEORGIA WITH VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE
THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AND HAVE CAPPED RAIN CHANCES AT
20 PERCENT...DO NOT EXPECT ANY STORM ACTIVITY AS ANY SURFACE BASED
CAPE IS WELL WEST OF THE REGION AND NE FL/SE GA HAS BEEN WORKED
OVER FROM AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS. CURRENT TEMPS IN THE 60S WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR A FEW
POSSIBLE UPPER 50S ACROSS FAR INLD SE GA WHERE FRONT WILL CROSS
EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED BEHIND FRONT ON
TUESDAY AS HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS NE FL IN THE
WAKE OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET...ALTHOUGH AREAS OF SE GA MAY
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND ANY LINGERING CLOUD
COVER WILL MAKE FOR A WIDER RANGE OF POSSIBLE TEMPS THAN USUAL
WITH THE LATEST 18Z GFS MOS GUIDANCE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S/NEAR 80...WHILE THE OLDER 12Z NAM/ECMWF WILL
SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S. FOR NOW HAVE
KEPT THE ONGOING FORECAST OF THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD BETWEEN THESE
BASED ON UNCERTAINITY IN EVENTUAL CLOUD COVER FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOW STRATUS CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS IT
MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. CONFIDENCE
WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SUB-VFR CIGS IN THE 00Z TAFS
IN THE 09Z-14Z TIME FRAME. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO A NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT TOWARDS 12Z-15Z TUESDAY MORNING. ELEVATED WINDS ABOVE
20 KNOTS WILL PERSIST ABOVE 1000 FT OVERNIGHT AT THE REGIONAL
TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND 15 KNOTS AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT...MAY BE CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES OVER THE OFFSHORE AND
GA COASTAL WATERS AND MAY INCLUDE SCEC HEADLINES FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. OTHERWISE WINDS/SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH THE WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK IN THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  59  75  54  82 /  20   0  10  10
SSI  64  74  60  77 /  20   0  10  10
JAX  63  79  58  82 /  20  10  10  10
SGJ  63  77  64  79 /  20  10  10  20
GNV  64  81  60  85 /  20  10  10  10
OCF  65  83  63  85 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/NELSON/GUILLET



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