Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 281139
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
639 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

H5 PATTERN TONIGHT HAS CLOSED LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE...AS
WELL AS THE GULF OF ALASKA AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. RIDGING
EXTENDED UP THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
PROVINCES. DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL MANITOBA SWD INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. THIS FEATURE HAS SPREAD CLOUDS TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LOWER CIGS NOTED
OVER FAR NWRN NEBRASKA. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED
FROM NERN NEBRASKA INTO THE SRN PANHANDLE. NORTH OF THE
FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WAS NOTED ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND FAR
NWRN NEBRASKA. AS OF 3 AM CDT UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE EAST
AND CLOUDY SKIES IN THE WEST...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 41 AT
VALENTINE TO 48 AT OGALLALA AND IMPERIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL HIGHLIGHT THE NEXT 24 HOURS
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. FOR TODAY...ABUNDANT
CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS IN THE NORTHWEST...AND
WILL TRANSITION SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST TODAY. WITH SURFACE HEATING
LATER TODAY...LAPSE RATES WILL INCREASE IN THE H85 TO H70 LAYER
THIS AFTERNOON. INHERITED FCST HAD A MENTION OF SPRINKLES THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO KEEP THIS CONFINED TO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TO COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING. GIVEN THE MEAGER
MOISTURE IN PLACE...WILL KEEP MEASURABLE PRECIP OUT OF THE FCST
AND CONTINUE TO MENTION SPRINKLES. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WARMEST IN
THE EAST WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S FORECAST. IN THE
WEST...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. FOR
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN...THEN EASTERN
NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE WEST...TO UPPER 30S IN
THE SOUTHWEST...CENTRAL AND EAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

THE 28.00Z DETERMINISTIC DATA CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE THE BREAKDOWN OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TRANSITORY RIDGE MID-WEEK.  THE RIDGE BREAKDOWN WILL
OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS A NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER.  THE WAVE WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA PROVIDING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE STORM
THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.  THEREAFTER...UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
NEAR ZONAL FLOW USHERS WEAK DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE AND A RESULTANT LACK
OF OMEGA WILL PROMOTE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.  HIGHS BY
MID-AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO RISE BACK INTO THE
70S...AND BY THURSDAY...UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ARE POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED STORMS ARE SHOWN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY
EVENING ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES...HOWEVER INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
PARAMETERS ONLY FAVOR GARDEN VARIETY CONVECTION DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS.  AFTER DARK...INSTABILITY WILL BE LOST...WITH ONLY SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THEREAFTER.

THE UPPER LEVELS TRANSITION TO ZONAL FOR THE PERIODS OF FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.  HIGHS IN THE 70S WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST
PLACES...HOWEVER BY EARLY SUNDAY...STRONGER THERMAL ADVECTION WILL
HELP PUSH HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
A COLD FRONT WILL WORK THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT CHANCES ARE UNCERTAIN AS THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO WOBBLE ON THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF KEY FORCING
FEATURES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN.  BY SUNDAY HOWEVER...TD/S IN
THE 50S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR EAST...PROVIDING FOR INCREASING
INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE OUTSIDE OF SMOOTHING THE CONVECTIVE BLOBS
PRODUCED BY THE EXTENDED BLEND...WILL LARGELY LEAVE THE CR_INT ALONE
WHICH SUGGESTS LOW END CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...SOME LOW CLOUDS AROUND 900 FT AGL ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 13Z AND DECIDED TO HANDLE THIS WITH A TEMPO
GROUP. AFTER 13Z...MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING
WITH CIGS AROUND 6000 FT AGL. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING
WITH CIGS INCREASING TO 20000 FT AGL. FOR THE KVTN
TERMINAL...EXPECT BROKEN CIGS OF 7000 TO 10000 FT AGL THIS
MORNING...SCATTERING OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS
OF 20000 FT AGL EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CLB






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