Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 251040 AAA
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
336 AM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE GREAT BASIN
TODAY...ALONG WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES. WINDY AND COOL BUT SUNNIER
WEATHER ON SUNDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT THIS MORNING. ONE LAST STRONG TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE
PACIFIC TODAY TO MAKE FOR A RATHER MISERABLE START TO THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH THE MOISTURE IS MUCH- NEEDED IN OUR DROUGHT-
STRICKEN PART OF THE NATION. WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION WILL
DOMINATE THIS MORNING AS THE AXIS APROACHES THE CWA FROM THE WEST.
THEN...THIS AFTERNOON...COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WILL PROMOTE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WITH THUNDER AND GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL...AS COOL OR PERHAPS A BIT
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.

TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT WITH DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION AS
INSOLATION ENDS AND THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES. SNOW LEVELS
WILL DROP TOWARDS MANY VALLEY FLOORS SO ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION COULD BE ACCUMULATING SNOW EVEN ON THE FLOORS...BUT
SHOULD LIKELY BE VERY LIGHT IF IT DOES.

LOW CUTS OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AND NORTHWEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP. THIS MAY MEAN A WIND ADVISORY EVENT IN PARTS
OF THE AREA (NYE COUNTY MAINLY WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 50-55
MPH. MAV GUIDANCE IS NOTICEABLY HIGHER THAN MET WITH WIND SPEEDS SO
WILL WAIT BEFORE ISSUING ANYTHING...ESPECIALLY SINCE ITS STILL 36
HOURS OUT. OTHERWISE...MUCH DRIER WITH SUNSHINE RETURNING AS THE
RIDGE TO OUR WEST STARTS TO SLOWLY NOSE EAST INTO NEVADA.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE JUST A BIT THANKS TO THE SUNSHINE BUT STILL
COOLISH...AND THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL DOWNRIGHT CHILLY.

RIDGE CONTINUES SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD MONDAY WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS...SLOW WARMING...AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. RCM

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ALL
SOLUTIONS ARE DEPICTING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON TUESDAY WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. WINDS WILL REMAIN
ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING THE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTING TO THE EAST...IN RESPONSE TO A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM
ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE IN A
WEST TO EAST FASHION. AFTERNOON HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL AGAIN BE
ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LIGHT
WINDS ONCE AGAIN.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...CHANGES IN THE MODELS START
OCCURRING WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THE EUROPEAN CONTINUES THE
WEST TO EAST FLOW WHILE THE GFS CARVES A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE
NORTHWEST PACIFIC. SHOULD BE A TAD WARMER DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ON THURSDAY AGAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME KIND OF TROUGH COMING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...BUT VARY GREATLY IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH. DID NOT
MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...A MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM
WILL PROVIDE MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS OVER ALL TERMINALS...WITH
ISOLATED -TSRA POSSIBLE. WITH TROUGH PASSAGE THIS EVENING...ANY
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE OVER SNOW SHOWERS. LOOK FOR
MVFR/IFR REDUCTIONS TO CIG/VSBY DURING THE DAY AND EVENING. WINDS
SW10-15G2025KT DURING THE LATE MORNING TO AFTERNOON...DECREASING
IN THE EVENING.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

93/86/86


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