Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KMHX 062237
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
637 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND LINGER NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM WED...NO SIGNIF CHANGES WITH WIDESPREAD HIGH CLOUDS
THRU THE EVENING THEN POSS SOME LEADING SHRA REACHING SRN TIER
VERY LATE ASSOC WITH LOW PRES TO THE S.

PREV DISC...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS RUN WITH THE EVOLUTION
OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA COAST. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL BE SHUNTED OUT OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING AS THE LOW DRIFTS TO THE NORTH. INCREASING CLOUDS
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
STREAM IN FROM DEVELOPING SYSTEM. CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. WEAK STEERING FLOW IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...SO LOW WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY. FORECAST PROBLEM
FOR TONIGHT WILL BE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING FAIRLY DRY IN MID LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH
SATURATION OCCURRING IN SOUTHERN AREAS BY SUNRISE. LOCAL MODELS
SHOWING PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST BY 12Z. WILL GO WITH SOME
CHANCES IN SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 137 PM WED...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE AREA.
WITH WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL STEERING FLOW CONTINUING LOW WILL NOT MOVE
VERY MUCH. MODELS AGREEING ON KEEPING LOW OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA/GEORGIA COAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME DRIFT TOWARD THE
WEST AS IT STARTS TO BUTT UP AGAINST THE RIDGE ALOFT TO THE NORTH.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN SATURATING ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY WITH PW VALUES REACHING AN INCH AND THREE
QUARTERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS IN THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS WITH DECREASING CHANCES GOING NORTH...WITH
RAIN POSSIBLE HEAVY AT TIMES. LIMITED INSTABILITY...BUT WILL HAVE
SOME THUNDER MENTIONED IN COASTAL SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM WED...MAIN FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE A
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED ABOUT
200-250 MI EAST OF JACKSONVILLE, FL TODAY.

UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS SETTING UP A REX
BLOCKING PATTERN WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL STEERING FLOW...WHICH
WILL ALLOW THE LOW TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
12Z MODELS REMAIN IF GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW
SLOWLY BACKING TOWARD THE SC COAST THURS NIGHT INTO FRI...THEN
THEY DIVERGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SOME MODELS DRIFTING THE LOW
TOWARD GA WHILE OTHERS DRIFT IT NORTHWARD ALONG THE NC COAST. IT
IS NOT UNTIL MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND BEGIN TO EJECT NORTHWARD AND
FINALLY AWAY FROM THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WITH SC
TSTMS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH BEST PRECIP
CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE TOUGH TO PIN DOWN.

THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED TO
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND ROUGH
SURF/HIGHER THREAT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. THOUGH ADDITIONAL
IMPACTS COULD BE FELT ACROSS EASTERN NC IF TRACK AND/OR STRENGTH
CHANGES. GRADUAL WARM UP THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORTING THE WARMEST TEMPS MON AND TUE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S INLAND AND UPPER 70S/LOW 80S ALONG THE
COAST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA...LIKELY
PUSHING THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED. SHOULD START TO DRY OUT
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WITH NWLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT WITH CURRENT HIGH CLOUDS
GIVING WAY TO MID CLOUDS LATER. ON THU LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL PUSH
GRAD INLAND AND EXPECT RAIN CHCS TO INCREASE ALONG THE CST WITH
LIKELY SOME LOWERING OF CIGS TO AT TIMES MVFR. DEEP INLAND
MOISTURE WILL STAY MAINLY TO THE SE SO WILL CONT WITH JUST VCSH
AND VFR. ENE WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT THU AS LOW PRESS SLOWLY
APPROACHES FROM THE S WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KTS CST.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM WED...A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
BRINGING SHOWER AND ISOLATED TSTM CHANCES WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUING TO BRING
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM WED...NO SIGNIF CHANGES SHORT TERM WITH ENE SLOWLY
INCREASING AND SEAS BUILDING CNTRL AND SRN WTRS. BASED ON FCST
SEAS DID EXTEND SCA THRU THE ENTIRE FCST TIME CNTRL AND SRN WTRS.

PREV DISC...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS IN LOOSE GRADIENT. IN THE
SOUTHERN WATERS WINDS ARE EASTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST.

DEVELOPING LOW PRES APPROACHING FROM S WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN PRES
GRAD OVER AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY AND INCREASING
TO 15-20 KT SRN HALF OF WATERS LATE TONIGHT.

SEAS 1-3 FT THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER SRN WATERS THIS
AFTN AND ALL WATERS TONIGHT. HEIGHTS TO AROUND 6 FT EXPECTED OUTER
PORTIONS OF SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS BY THU MORNING...AND SCA
POSTED.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM WED...MAIN FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY STRENGTHENING ABOUT 200-25O
MILES EAST OF JACKSONVILLE FL. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOW/STALL
OFF THE SE COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. LOW THEN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND
MOVE ALONG THE COAST LATE SUN AND MON.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THU NIGHT...ESP SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST E/SE WINDS 10-20KT THU
NIGHT INTO SAT...BECOMING SSE SUN. EXPECT TIGHTER GRADIENT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN WATERS...SO THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
WINDS 20-30KT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME AND WILL
DEPEND ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW. SCA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE LONG TERM SOUTH OF OREGON INLET. CONTINUE TO FORECAST
SEAS UP TO 5 TO 9 FEET SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND 3 TO 5 FEET
NORTH.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CCG/RF
NEAR TERM...RF/CGG
SHORT TERM...CCG
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...RF/SK
MARINE...RF/CCG/SK/CQD



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.