Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 011935
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
335 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY/THIS EVENING...DRY WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
TRYING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TREASURE COAST AND MOVING SLOWLY ONSHORE
ACROSS MARTIN COASTAL AREAS IN THE MID AFTERNOON. CU FIELD LOOKING
RATHER PALTRY WITH DRY MID LEVEL AIR STILL ABUNDANT. SMALL
CONVECTIVE LINE JUST OFFSHORE OF JAX FORECAST TO TRANSITION
SOUTHWARD INTO THIS EVENING. SHORT RANGE MODELS FORECAST SOME OF THE
CONVECTION TO REACH VOLUSIA COUNTY DURING THE EARLY EVENING BUT MAY
BE ON THE WANE BY AROUND SUNSET WHEN THE LINE IS FORECAST TO
PROGRESS INTO THE AREA.

TONIGHT...KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS VOLUSIA COUNTY
INTO EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE
NEAR THE AREA WITH LIGHT FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE OVER THE
INTERIOR AND TREASURE COAST. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THU...E/ESE LOW LVL FLOW RETURNS AS SFC HIGH PUSHES OFF INTO THE MID
ATLC. A DIFFUSE EAST COAST BREEZE SHOULD MOVE INLAND WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 80S COAST TO MID 80S FOR THE INTERIOR.

THU NGT-FRI... LOW PRECIP POTENTIAL THRU THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK. AN H100-H70 AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY
WILL PUSH TO THE MID ATLC COAST AND PULL A WELL DEFINED GOMEX HIGH
AREA ALONG WITH IT...WITH THE TWO MERGING INTO A LARGE HIGH PRES
RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC BY THU AFTN.

TRAILING RIDGE AXIS DRAPED OVER THE N FL PENINSULA AND THE GOMEX
WILL ALLOW A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO DVLP IN THE H85-H70 LYR THAT
WILL IMPEDE DEEP CONVECTION. SIG MID LVL DRY AIR WILL ADVECT INTO
THE REGION AS WELL...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PWAT VALUES BTWN 1.0-1.2
INCHES THRU LATE WEEK. ALOFT...WEAK MID/UPR LVL DYNAMIC SUPPORT ON
THU WILL ONLY WANE AS THE RIDGE DEFLECTS UPSTREAM VORT MAXES INTO
THE DEEP SOUTH WHILE THE SRN BRANCH OF THE H30-H20 JET MOVES INTO A
POSITION THAT WILL EVENTUALLY PLACE FL UNDER ITS DESCENDING LEFT
REAR QUAD.

WILL KEEP SLGT CHC POPS IN FOR THE INTERIOR COUNTIES THU AFT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID LVL VORT/UPR LVL DIVERGENCE MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT DURING DIURNAL HEATING TO ALLOW A FEW SHRAS TO DVLP. HOWEVER...
THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL GENERATE A STEADY ERLY FLOW THRU
THE H100-H85 LYR THAT WILL FOCUS ANY SEA BREEZE COLLISION OVER THE W
HALF OF THE PENINSULA. FRI WILL REMAIN DRY GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND THE LACK OF ANY MID/UPR LVL DYNAMIC
SUPPORT.  MAX TEMPS IN THE L/M80S...EXCEPT U70S ALONG HTE IMMEDIATE
COAST. MIN TEMPS M/U60S.

SAT-WED... PROGRESSIVE WX PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACRS THE CONUS INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPSTREAM MID/UPR LVL WIND PATTERN IS QUITE
FLAT WELL INTO THE CENTRAL PAC...MAX JET SPEEDS LARGELY BLO 100KTS
WITH ONLY LOW AMP/OPEN SHORT WAVES TO CONTEND FOR WHAT LITTLE JET
ENERGY IS AVAILABLE.

LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP INTENSIFICATION AS THESE WAVES PUSH ACRS
THE CONUS. MODELS CONTINUE THE NEXT COLD FRONT THRU CENTRAL FL ON
SAT BEFORE IT STALLS OVER THE S PENINSULA ON SUN. THIS IS DUE TO THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE WX PATTERN AS THE POST FRONTAL RIDGE TAKES
AN ERLY TRAK ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH ON SAT THEN INTO THE W ATLC ON
SUN...LEAVING THE FRONT WITH ONLY ITS OWN MOMENTUM TO MAKE ANY
FORWARD PROGRESS. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE N AS A WARM FRONT
ON MON AS THE REGION GAINS THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AND H100-H70
WINDS VEER TO A SRLY COMPONENT.

LOW END POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FCST BTWN 00Z SUN-12Z MON...THEN
AREAWIDE MON-WED. ZONAL FLOW PATTERNS RARELY RESULT IN WIDE DAY-TO-
DAY TEMP SWINGS AN THIS ONE APPEARS NO DIFFERENT. MAX TEMPS WILL
HOLD WITHIN 5F OF EARLY APR CLIMO AVGS (U70S/L80S)...MIN TEMPS ARND
5F ABV AVG (U50S/M60S).

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR. FEW SHRA MAY APPROACH KDAB VCNTY AROUND 00Z.
SOME MVFR FOG PSBL LATE...WITH A HIGHER CHANCE AT KVRB/KFPR.

&&

.MARINE...VARIABLE WINDS TO 5-10 KNOTS TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL TROUGH
DROPS INTO THE AREA. ESE WINDS TO 10 KNOTS DEVELOP ON THU WITH SEAS
2 FT NEAR SHORE TO 2-3 FT OFFSHORE.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...LIGHT TO GENTLE S/SE BREEZE WILL PREVAIL THRU THE
DAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MAINTAINS ITS HOLD OVER THE FL PENINSULA. A
COLD FRONT WILL PRESS INTO THE W FL PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT...FORCING
THE WRN FLANK OF THE RIDGE TO RETREAT SEAWARD. WINDS WILL RESPOND BY
VEERING TO THE S/SW...INCREASING TO A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE.
SEAS 3-4FT THRU THE DAY... SUBSIDING TO 2-3FT OVERNIGHT AS THE LCL
ATLC BECOMES FETCH PROTECTED WITH THE DVLPG OFFSHORE BREEZE.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...BOATING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU CENTRAL FL. WINDS WILL VEER STEADILY FROM A
LIGHT TO GENTLE W/SW BREEZE AT DAYBREAK TO A GENTLE TO MODERATE N/NE
BREEZE BY SUNSET...THEN A MODERATE TO FRESH NE BREEZE OVERNIGHT.
SEAS 2-3FT THRU THE DAY...BUILDING TO 3-4FT OFFSHORE BY LATE
AFTERNOON...THEN 4-6FT OVERNIGHT.

SUN-SUN NIGHT...FRONTAL BNDRY WILL STALL S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AS THE
POST FRONTAL RIDGE PUSHES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. TIGHT PGRAD ACRS
THE LCL ATLC WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO FRESH NE BREEZE THRU THE
DAY...VEERING TO THE E OVERNIGHT. SEAS 5-7FT EARLY BUILDING TO 6-8FT
IN THE AFTN AND CONTG OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  63  81  63  84 /  20  10  10  10
MCO  63  85  65  87 /  10  20  10  10
MLB  61  80  64  82 /  10  10  10  10
VRB  59  81  63  83 /   0  10  10  10
LEE  64  84  66  85 /  10  20  10  10
SFB  64  85  65  87 /  10  20  10  10
ORL  65  84  66  86 /  10  20  10  10
FPR  59  81  63  83 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM....JOHNSON


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