Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 280822
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
415 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...LOCAL 07Z METARS PLACE THE QSTNRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ROUGHLY
NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF A LINE FROM TAMPA TO VERO BEACH...SOUTH OF THE
WPC ANALYZED POSN. LATEST IN A SERIES OF GOMEX MCS CENTERED SOUTH OF
MOB-PNS WITH LARGE AREA OF DEBRIS RAIN EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE NERN
GOMEX AND ONSHORE THE FL NATURE COAST (WEST COAST NORTH OF GREATER
TAMPA). THE MAIN COLD TOPPED CONVECTION IS DROPPING SEWD MUCH LIKE
ITS PREDECESSOR EARLIER TODAY...AND EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN MID AND
HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS WITH LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES...MAINLY OVER THE
FAR WRN CWA THROUGH SUNRISE.

TODAY/TONIGHT...MID/UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY
WILL MOVE EWD TO THE TN VALLEY WHILST OPENING UP INTO A TROUGH.
SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER NWRN GOMEX WILL SLIDE EWD OVER THE NERN
GOMEX BY THIS EVENING...THEN TURN ENE INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING. SFC FRONT WILL REMAIN QSTNRY MOST OF
THE DAY AND EVENING BEFORE LIFTING INTO NORTH FL LATE TONIGHT. AS
THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHES EWD...H25 JET FORCED ASCENT WILL SPREAD
EWD ACROSS THE ERN GOMEX AND FL...CAUSING THE SFC LOW TO THE NW TO
DEEPEN. MEAN LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FURTHER WITH PWAT VALUES
REACHING 1.75-2.0". EXPECT WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION LIMITED
IN COVERAGE OWING TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT DIURNAL
SFC HEATING. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL LIKELY BE FROM LAKE OKEE
SWD ACROSS SOUTH FL. HIGH RAIN CHCS CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...THOUGH HIGHEST QPF WILL LIKELY BE FARTHER W AND
NW...CLOSER TO APPROACHING SFC LOW. RAN WITH 70-80 POPS TODAY AND 60
TONIGHT WITH ISOLD COVERAGE OF STORMS. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
PER SPC `MRGL` SVR RISK...BUT DO NOT EXPECT REPEAT OF BIG HAIL AND
WIND EVENT NEAR LAKE OKEE LATE MON AFTN/EARLY EVE. MAXES IN THE U70S
TO L80S...WITH A FEW M80S DOWN NEAR THE LAKE. MINS IN THE U60S NORTH
/CTRL TO L70S SE.

WED-WED NIGHT...EARLY IN THE PERIOD ECFL WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH THE WARM FRONT LOCATED ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA...SURFACE LOW
LOCATED NEAR THE GA/AL/FL BORDERS AND A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE
LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. STILL EXPECTING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON
THIS DAY. UNSEASONABLY DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
STRONGER SOUTH OF KMCO WHERE SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH
WITH 15-20 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS.
INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH MODELS SHOW 500 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING ACROSS
ECFL THROUGH THE DAY WHICH COULD LIMIT OVERALL DESTABILIZATION.

NONETHELESS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY HIGH AT
60 TO 70 PERCENT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTH. EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
WILL AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS TO PUSH THE BOUNDARY
INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND OUT INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. MAIN THREATS FROM
STORMS WILL BE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HAIL AND
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. THE LATEST STORM PREDICTION CENTER
OUTLOOK FOR DAY 2 KEEPS ECFL WITHIN MENTION OF MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORM CHANCES. JET STREAM ENERGY (250MB > 120KTS) WILL BE STRONGER
THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES ON TUE WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. LOWS
CONTINUE MILD AND MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S WITH SOME LOWER 70S
POSSIBLE.

THU-THU NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS FORECAST TO RACE UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AS THE COLD FRONT PULLS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST AWAY
FROM ECFL. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH MAY
ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE AREA BUT EXPECT MOST PLACES
TO REMAIN DRY AS DRIER AIR DOES SLOWLY SLIDE DOWN THE PENINSULA.
LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY VEER
TO N/NNE BY EARLY EVENING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S...EXCEPT SOME UPPER 50S
POSSIBLE INTO THE INTERIOR AND AWAY FROM LARGER METROPOLITAN AREAS.

FRI-MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST TO ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER INFLUENCE. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN BELOW
20 PERCENT. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING AN ISOLD SHRA DURING THIS
STRETCH WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OR PERHAPS OVER THE TREASURE
COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. SLIGHTLY UNSEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
(HIGHS/LOWS) FOR FRI-SAT WITH NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS AGAIN FOR SUN-
MON.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN CLOUDS/PRECIP DEVELOPING AND
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PROGRESSES.
EMBEDDED TS WITH IFR VSBYS PSBL BUT COVERAGE/CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TEMPORAL FCST.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW BECOME MODERATE OUT OF THE E-ESE LATE
TODAY/TONIGHT AT 15-20KT. SEAS 2-3FT EARLY THIS MORNING...STEADILY
INCREASING TO 2-4FT LATE TODAY AND 3-5FT TONIGHT.

WED-SAT...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
NORTH FL WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
WED EVENING. SW WINDS BECOMING W/NW WED EVENING-THU...THEN NW/N THU
NIGHT-FRI. LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEEDS AT PRESENT DUE TO
OVERALL STRENGTH OF LOW/PLACEMENT/EXACT TRACK. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
WITH SPEEDS 15-20 KTS WED/WED NIGHT OVER THE OPEN ATLC...POSSIBLY
INTO EARLY THU...BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY RELAXES INTO
FRI...THEN FALLING BACK TO AOB 10 KTS FOR SAT. LATER SHIFTS CAN
MONITOR FOR A SCA BUT SUSPECT IT WILL BE MARGINAL. SEAS NEAR SHORE
GENERALLY IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE OVER THIS PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL 6 FT
AND PERHAPS 7 FT SEAS WELL OFFSHORE AT TIMES FOR WED-FRI.

HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUES ON WED/EARLY WED EVENING
WITH A FAST OFFSHORE MOVING COMPONENT OF 30 TO 40 KTS. WINDS/SEAS
LOCALLY HIGHER INVOF OF SHOWERS/STORMS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  78  69  83  64 /  70  60  60  20
MCO  81  68  86  66 /  80  60  60  20
MLB  78  71  86  67 /  70  60  60  20
VRB  81  71  86  70 /  70  60  60  20
LEE  80  68  84  64 /  80  60  60  20
SFB  80  67  85  66 /  80  60  60  20
ORL  81  68  86  67 /  80  60  60  20
FPR  82  73  86  70 /  70  60  60  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...SEDLOCK


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