Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 210952 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
452 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING...
WITH A GENERAL MID LEVEL ZONAL FLOW PREVALENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION ON THE BASE OF THIS FEATURE. A COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN GA AND NORTHERN FL EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MEANWHILE
BUILDING FROM THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION
TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. A COOLER AIRMASS HAS SETTLED
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATING THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 50S OVER INTERIOR AREAS AS OF 4 AM CDT...WITH READINGS CLOSER
TO 60 NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

A DRY GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH LOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 0.6 AND 0.8 INCHES REMAINING IN
PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION. WE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TONIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER
RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES LOOKING TO FALL
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S AGAIN OVER THE INTERIOR...WITH READINGS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /21

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER DAY OF MILD WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AS A FLAT RIDGE PREVAILS ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF PROVIDES A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL TREND SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 80S NEAR THE COAST TO MID 80S
AT MORE INLAND LOCATIONS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS CLOUD COVER INVADES FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.  THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL PROVIDE A LOW END CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. /08

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA AND THEN STALLS ALONG THE COAST. MODELS INDICATE THIS
BOUNDARY WILL INTERACT WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROPAGATING
THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW TO GENERATE CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE FRIDAY NIGHT THEN RESUME AGAIN
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS A WEAK BOUNDARY LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA AND
BOTH ECMWF AND GFS PROJECT ENOUGH SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO TRIGGER
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM. KEPT CHANCE POPS IN
FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH TRAIN OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RIPPLING
THROUGH MOIST ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVERLYING A CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHUT OFF SUNDAY AS MODELS
PROJECT A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION WITH ENOUGH OOMPH
TO MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ALLOWING COOLER...DRIER AIR
TO FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE. IF MODEL TRENDS HOLD...A BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW
WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY...CREATING RIP CURRENT ISSUES..FOLLOWED BY A
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. /08 JW


&&

.AVIATION...21.12Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT
OVER THE INTERIOR WITH SOUTH WINDS 5-10 KNOTS DEVELOPING NEAR THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON. /21


&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND THE
ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EASTWARD. A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER
THE MARINE AREA LATE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST AND THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS STATES. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT WILL
APPROACH THE GULF COAST STATES. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      78  55  83  64  84 /  00  00  10  40  40
PENSACOLA   78  60  82  68  83 /  00  00  10  30  50
DESTIN      77  63  81  68  81 /  00  00  10  30  50
EVERGREEN   78  52  85  60  81 /  00  00  10  30  40
WAYNESBORO  78  52  84  62  81 /  05  00  10  30  30
CAMDEN      77  52  84  60  81 /  05  05  10  30  40
CRESTVIEW   80  52  86  61  84 /  00  00  10  30  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LOWER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA.

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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