Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 061835
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
135 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE RIDGE IS MOVING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
80`S. LAPS SOUNDING AT 18Z SHOWS A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE WITH MINIMAL INSTABILITY. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES THROUGH
THE UPPER LEVELS, SO CONDITIONS REALLY AREN`T FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION, EVEN WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES. LOOK FOR EVEN HIGHER
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AS RETURN FLOW ADVECTS WARMER AIR INTO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WITH ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE ON THE PLATEAU
BEGINNING TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR OUR STORM CHANCES TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH APPROACH OF A
SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH, WITH FROPA EXPECTED ON
MONDAY NIGHT (GFS) OR TUESDAY (ECMWF). MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPING MAINLY DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS THIS
WEEKEND AND LEADING UP TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT AT THIS TIME
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE 7-DAY FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      58  89  60  89 /  05  10  10  05
CLARKSVILLE    59  87  61  87 /  05  10  10  10
CROSSVILLE     54  81  57  81 /  05  20  05  20
COLUMBIA       58  88  60  89 /  05  10  05  05
LAWRENCEBURG   57  88  59  88 /  05  10  05  05
WAVERLY        59  87  61  87 /  05  10  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE




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