Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 060546
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
146 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A DRIER MID-WEEK WITH
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWER ACTIVITY SEEN ON CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY IS CONFINED TO NORTH
OF I-80 AS THE REMNANTS OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
DISSIPATE. MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FROM ABOUT 280 DEGREES...SO
CURRENT TRAJECTORY OF SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...BEFORE DISSIPATING UPON EXITING THE FORECAST AREA.

CURRENT IR SATELLITE SHOWING AN EXPANSIVE SECTION OF CLEARING
THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS A RESULT OF DRIER AIR
PUSHING NORTHWARD AS WHAT IS LEFT OF THE BOUNDARY RETREATS NORTH.
DRIER AIR WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP
THIS MORNING...BUT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN SOME OF THE MORE
SHELTERED AREAS...ESPECIALLY THOSE LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED
RAINFALL IN THE LAST 24HRS.

THE LAST OF THE REMAINING DEEP MOISTURE WILL SKIRT THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.
CONSIDERABLE WARMING OF THE LOW-LEVELS WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND FEED INSTABILITY TO THE POINT OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. WITH MOISTURE RETREATING AND ONLY MEAGER FORCING
COMING IN THE FORM OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE LIMITED SPATIALLY.

THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE BUILDS IN THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A
MUCH DRIER FORECAST AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND ONLY SPOTTY...MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS OR
ISOLATED STORMS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIDGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES. ENERGY EJECTS FROM A WESTERN U.S. TROUGH AND
HEADS TOWARDS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 00Z MONDAY.
RESULTING SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD
WITH TIME...PERHAPS ARRIVING MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. AHEAD OF
THIS...MAINLY DIURNAL POPS GET A BIT HIGHER EACH DAY WITH THE
WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE. RIPPLES ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE
MAY PROVIDE LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENT...WHICH OF COURSE ARE TOUGH TO
TIME AT THIS DISTANCE. THE FRONT BRINGS MORE GENERALIZED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

FAIRLY STATIC ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS ON EITHER
SIDE OF 60. COOLER TEMPERATURES MAY ARRIVE TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING SHOULD STAY ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS COULD BRING BRIEF
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO FKL/DUJ...BUT A STABILIZING AIRMASS
PRECLUDES THE NECESSITY FOR THUNDERSTORM INCLUSION. SHOWERS WILL
PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA JUST AFTER SUNRISE.

ELSEWHERE...DRIER AIR ADVANCING FROM THE SOUTH HAS RESULTED IN
CLEARING AND PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS. DESPITE THE DRIER
AIR...SOME FAVORABLE LOCATIONS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT DO EXIST. FOG
SHOULD REMAIN PATCHY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND MAY NOT IMPACT
ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH. HAVE
INCLUDED TEMPORARY MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS
THROUGH 12Z.

LATER TODAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
NORTHEAST AND EASTERN PERIPHERY. WHILE SPATIAL COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED...DUJ/LBE COULD SEE TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MORNING FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT THURSDAY OR FRIDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$


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