Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 190921
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
521 AM AST SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE TO SHIFT FARTHER NORTHEAST
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AS A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH PULLS
NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN WILL HELP TO
CREATE A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
WEST...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FILLS AND EXITS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN TODAY WHILE LIFTING NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWED PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS AND REACHING PARTS OF THE ISLANDS FROM TIME TO
TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF PASSING LOW TO MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE REST OF
THE MORNING HOURS. LATER IN THE DAY EXPECT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ACROSS THE REGION TO COMBINE WILL DAYTIME HEATING AND
LOCAL EFFECTS TO ALLOW FOR INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLY ONE OR TWO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTION OF
PUERTO RICO. ELSEWHERE... MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES AND OVERALL
LIGHT EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY..EXCEPT FOR LOCAL
SEA BREEZE VARIATION ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTY
WINDS.

RIDGE ALOFT IS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EARLY PORTION
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES
AND LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE LOCAL FLYING AREA WITH VCSH OVER TJSJ. SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO AFTER
19/17Z...PRODUCING AT LEAST VCSH/VCTS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS AT TJMZ AND TJBQ. LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS BECOMING WESTERLY AND STRONGER ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...RECENT DATA FROM BUOY 41043 NE OF PUERTO RICO SUGGEST A
MODERATE NNE SWELL HELPING TO CREATE SEAS AROUND 7 FEET AND PERIOD
OF 10-13 SECS. THEREFORE STILL EXPECT SLIGHT INCREASE IN SEAS MAINLY
ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL PASSAGES. SEAS
OF ABOUT 5 TO 6 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 11 SECONDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS ARE THEREFORE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION
AND MONITOR THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSURED BY WFO SAN JUAN
PUERTO RICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  75  89  76 /  20  20  20  20
STT  85  76  85  76 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

72/09


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