Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 032353
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
753 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

OUR RECENT STRETCH OF FAIR AND MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 00Z MONDAY] UNLIMITED CIGS AND UNRESTRICTED VIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY MID TO LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
SOME VFR CIGS (4-5K FT) MAY APPROACH KVLD FROM THE EAST. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, THEN E-SE 5 TO 10 KT MONDAY,
EXCEPT FOR A SE SEA BREEZE AROUND 10 KT AT KECP MID TO LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [312 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...

A RATHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL EXIST ALOFT AS A RESERVOIR
OF +PV RESIDES OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN GOMEX. AT
THE SURFACE, A RIDGE AXIS WILL BE ELONGATING FROM WEST TO EAST OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST, PLACING THE TRI-STATE REGION UNDER AN
EASTERLY FLOW REGIME. WHILE THIS WOULD TEND TO FAVOR SOME SORT OF
LATE AFTERNOON ATLANTIC SEABREEZE RAIN CHANCES, OUR PWAT VALUES
WILL RESEMBLE VALUES TYPICAL MARCH AND APRIL AND SHOULD PRECLUDE
ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS WILL REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS CREEPING UP INTO THE LOWER 60S AS
MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES.


.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...

MUTUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BETWEEN A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
OVER THE BAHAMAS, AND THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF +PV TO START THE
PERIOD. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY, IT WILL GRADUALLY STACK. AS IT DOES SO, FORWARD
PROGRESS WILL ESSENTIALLY COME TO A HALT AS WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL
DO VERY LITTLE AS FAR AS +PVA GOES. THUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME SORT OF
EXTRATROPICAL, OR POSSIBLY SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SPINNING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC. RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AT
LEAST FRIDAY, AS DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. BY
FRIDAY, MOISTURE WILL HAVE WRAPPED AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WILL BEGIN TO BE ADVECTED IN FROM THE NORTH.
STILL, RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH SUNDAY.


.MARINE...

UNDER AN EASTERLY FLOW REGIME, EXPECT CAUTIONARY LEVEL NOCTURNAL
SURGES TO SPREAD FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF EACH
NIGHT. THE ENHANCED WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN BELOW CAUTIONARY
LEVELS TO THE WEST OF APALACHICOLA EACH AFTERNOON. THIS PATTERN
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


.FIRE WEATHER...

THE MILD AND DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. STRONG
SUNSHINE AND DEEP MIXING WILL CAUSE DISPERSION VALUES TO BE
UNUSUALLY HIGH EACH AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL BE LOW EACH
AFTERNOON...BUT NOT QUITE DOWN TO LOCALLY CRITICAL VALUES. FUEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AFTER A WET APRIL.


.HYDROLOGY...

WITH NO RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, RIVER
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THEIR GRADUAL DECLINE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   56  83  63  86  64 /   0   0  10   0  10
PANAMA CITY   64  78  65  78  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
DOTHAN        59  82  61  81  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALBANY        57  82  60  82  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
VALDOSTA      57  81  59  81  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
CROSS CITY    55  84  59  85  62 /   0  10   0   0  10
APALACHICOLA  66  79  67  80  68 /   0   0  10   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN


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