Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 061956
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
356 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY - THURSDAY/...
THE DISTURBANCE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST OF FLORIDA CONTINUES TO HUG
THE GULFSTREAM AS IT TRAVELS NORTH TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS. OVER
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...A SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED
AND HAS NOT MADE MUCH PROGRESS AS OF YET AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE
CUMULUS FIELD CONTINUES TO HANG OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE
SEA BREEZE. AFTER SUNSET...THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL
COLLAPSE AND THE BOUNDARY WILL RETREAT BACK OFFSHORE.

WITH DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE HOLDING OVER THE AREA THANKS TO THE
DISTURBANCE OFF THE EAST COAST...THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER AS THE LOW MOVES
AWAY FROM THE AREA. COULD SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
80S...PROVIDING A TASTE OF SUMMER ACROSS THE AREA. A SEA BREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...LIKELY PUSHING
FURTHER INLAND THANKS TO THE WEAKER FLOW.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY WITH THE HANDLING OF AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE (POSSIBLY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL IN NATURE)
WHICH WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. MOST OF THE MODELS NOW DRIFT THIS LOW
SLOWLY NORTH TOWARD AND THEN HUGGING THE SOUTH CAROLINA/NORTH CAROLINA
COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS IT ENCOUNTERS RIDGING TO THE NORTHEAST
OVER THE ATLANTIC. DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK THE REMNANTS OF THIS LOW
WILL GET PULLED NORTHEAST AHEAD THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE EASTERN U.S..

SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY DRIER SUBSIDENT AIR BEING DRAWN SOUTH INTO THE
REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW WILL KEEP MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA RAIN FREE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THEREAFTER A SUBTLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE
SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES (POPS 20 TO 40 PERCENT) FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NIGHTTIME
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S OVER INLAND AREAS...AND LOWER 70S ALONG THE
COAST...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
OVER INLAND LOCATIONS...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ALONG THE
COAST DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH SOME SHOWERS COULD AFFECT
LAL AND THE SWFL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT AND SOME VARIABILITY CAN BE EXPECTED. A SEA BREEZE SHOULD
DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SHIFTING WINDS AT MOST TERMINALS
ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST OF FLORIDA WILL
CONTINUE ITS JOURNEY NORTH TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE GULF WATERS WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND
RAIN SHOULD BE RARE AFTER THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR SETTLES OVER
THE AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK.
ELEVATIONS WILL BE ELEVATED IN THE COMING AFTERNOONS...BUT WINDS
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD NOT REACH CRITICAL RED FLAG
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  69  85  69  85 /  10   0  10  10
FMY  68  89  69  89 /  20  10  10  10
GIF  66  88  66  88 /  10   0  10  10
SRQ  67  84  68  85 /  10   0  10  10
BKV  62  86  61  87 /  10   0  10  10
SPG  71  85  71  85 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER/MARINE...02/GARCIA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...57/MCMICHAEL
DATA COLLECTION/UPPER AIR...20/BARRON


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