Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KTFX 031742
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1141 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION... NO UPDATE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE A DRY AND STABLE DAY. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO SATURDAY READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 17410Z.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PROVIDE DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS. THE EXCEPTION BEING SOUTHWEST MONTANA WHERE THE AIRMASS
IS SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AND ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
FROM 21Z THROUGH 03Z. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH POSSIBLE MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 354 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

TODAY THRU TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT...WARMER
SPRING TIME AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 60S OVER THE NORTH AND
IN THE 70S OVER THE SOUTHWEST...WITH MOST AREAS HAVING HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL
BE QUITE LIMITED TODAY AND MONDAY...AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO
SOUTHWEST MONTANA TODAY...THEN SPREADING A BIT FURTHER NORTH
TOWARDS CENTRAL MONTANA ON MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY...WITH THE APPROACH
OF A PACIFIC COOL FRONT...THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. BRUSDA

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN TIMING, LOCATION AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION
REMAINS LOWER THAN I WOULD PREFER. MAIN PLAYER IN THE FORECAST
EVOLUTION IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT MOVES SOUTHWARD FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST BETWEEN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM THEN EVOLVES INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND
MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY. THIS
PATTERN CONTINUES TO LOOK FAVORABLE FOR COOL AND UNSETTLED SPRING
WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE TIME PERIOD. AM CONTINUING TO BROAD-BRUSH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BUT CONFIDENCE
IN ANY TYPE OF A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN REMAINS ELUSIVE. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  64  40  75  47 /   0  10  10  10
CTB  60  33  72  39 /   0   0  10  10
HLN  70  39  76  43 /  10  10  10  10
BZN  66  37  71  42 /  10  10  20  10
WEY  65  30  67  33 /  30  20  30  20
DLN  69  39  72  43 /  20  10  20  20
HVR  63  36  76  43 /   0   0  10  10
LWT  63  39  72  45 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.