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000
FXUS63 KTOP 100509 AAA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1109 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010

.DISCUSSION...
BKN AREA OF CLOUDS HAS BEEN SLOW TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. THE
BACK EDGE IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD TOP/FOE AND SKIES SHOULD
BE SKC BY DAWN.

VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER THE CLOUDS CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010/

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER
EXPECTED WITHIN THIS PERIOD AND MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO GOING
FORECAST. DEPARTING UPPER DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. IN
ITS WAKE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE PLAINS STATES.
CURRENT WRAP AROUND LOW CLOUD COVER AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES HAVE BEEN STRONGLY TIED TO/OR IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
EXISTING SNOW COVER. NOTICEABLE DELINEATION IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF DRIER AIR AND BELIEVE ENOUGH
DRY AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA FOR SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR
EARLY WED MORNING. WITH SFC WINDS LESSENING TONIGHT AND SKIES
GRADUALLY CLEARING...SLIGHTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE FEW AREAS THAT RECEIVED LIGHT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS TODAY. ANTICIPATE LOW READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
OVER NC/NE KANSAS WITH LOWER TEENS IN FAR EC KANSAS. HIGHS ON WED
WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.

BLAIR

WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW EXPECTED DURING THE MID TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. H5 SOUTHERN
STREAM TROUGH EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH SOUTHERN TEXAS.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CWA. MEANWHILE A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD INDICATES A FAIRLY SHALLOW LAYER OF
MOISTURE...THUS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
EXISTS WITH THIS WEAK 500 MB TROUGH. SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE
BELOW FREEZING...THEREFORE SHOULD DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN FORM AS A
RESULT OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LIQUID
PRECIPITATION TO FREEZE TO SURFACES.

JL

EXTENDED SAT-TUES...SHORTWAVE LOW DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO KANSAS THROUGH THE
DAY ON SATURDAY.  TRIMMED GUIDANCE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BUT STILL
COULD BE TOO WARM WITH FALLING TEMPS POSSIBLE SAT.  HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  SPEED AT WHICH
THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW REDEVELOPS IS
DIFFERENT BETWEEN GFS AND EC...AND IS A BIT FAR OUT TO FOCUS ON.
STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE SCALE EASTERN
TROF ALSO DIFFERS...WITH GFS BRINGING A STRONGER WAVE DOWN THE
ROCKIES. WENT WITH HPC GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.

67

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$