Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1212 PM EDT THU MAR 19 2015

KYC019-043-089-127-OHC009-053-079-087-105-115-127-163-167-VAC027-
051-WVC001-005-007-011-013-015-017-019-021-033-035-039-041-043-
045-047-053-059-067-073-075-079-081-083-085-087-091-095-097-099-
101-105-107-109-200415-
1212 PM EDT THU MAR 19 2015

...THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS WILL BE CONSIDERED ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE STREAMS IN THE CHARLESTON HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA (HSA).
AN ABOVE NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL GENERALLY MEANS  WIDESPREAD FLOODING COULD
OCCUR WITH WATER LEVELS HAVING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. THIS AREA
INCLUDES EASTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...BUCHANAN AND
DICKENSON COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND MUCH OF WEST
VIRGINIA.

FOR THE LONG RANGE RIVER OUTLOOKS AND THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING
FLOOD STAGE OR THE CHANCES OF FLOODING RELATIVE TO NORMAL AT
SPECIFIC FORECAST POINTS DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS...REFER TO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OHRFC AND CLICK ON THE 90 DAY RIVER OUTLOOK IN THE
LEFT HAND COLUMN. CLICK ON FLOOD CHANCE VS NORMAL TO SEE THE RISK OF
FLOODING WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL.

FLOOD OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED BIWEEKLY BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN THE WINTER AND EARLY SPRING TO SUMMARIZE BASIN HYDRO
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS AND TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR SPRING
FLOODING. THE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON CURRENT AND EXPECTED
CONDITIONS...REALIZING THAT ACTUAL CONDITIONS MAY CHANGE DURING
THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.


PRECIPITATION...
PRECIPITATION HAS AVERAGED NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN
ISOLATED LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE HSA.


SOIL CONDITIONS...
SOIL MOISTURE IS CONSIDERED WET.


SNOW COVER AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...
NONE.

RESERVOIR CAPACITY...
RESERVOIR LEVELS ARE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL POOL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.


RIVER ICE CONDITIONS...
NONE.


STREAM FLOWS...
STREAM FLOWS ARE ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE HSA.


THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK...
THE OUTLOOK CALLS FOR A EL NINO PATTERN TO BREAK. WHAT THAT MEANS FOR
THE CHARLESTON WV HSA, IS THAT WE CAN EXPECT MILDER TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH A MORE ACTIVE STORM TRACK THIS SPRING, WITH OCCASIONAL
HEAVY RAIN EVENTS.

RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR LEADING TO FLOODING. HEAVY OR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CAN CAUSE FLOODING ANY TIME OF THE YEAR...EVEN
WHERE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS BELOW NORMAL.


$$






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