RSS FeedsIssued by NWS Topeka, KS
000
FGUS73 KTOP 242147
ESFTOP
KSC117-131-161-201-052000-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
347 PM CST TUE NOV 24 2009
...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK...
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER...
SOIL MOISTURE...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE.
THE VALUES IN THE TABLE BELOW ARE VALID FROM NOV 29 2009 TO FEB 27
2010.
IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THAT A LOCATION ON A RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE
LEVELS IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS. FOR EXAMPLE: THE TURKEY CREEK NEAR
SENECA HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 21 FEET. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE 11.2 FEET IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS.
ALL STAGES IN FEET
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
-------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
TURKEY CREEK
SENECA 8NW 21.0 5.6 6.6 6.9 8.0 8.4 8.8 9.3 11.2 13.2
BIG BLUE RIVER
MARYSVILLE 35.0 12.5 13.5 14.6 15.1 15.7 16.5 17.5 18.6 20.4
BLUE RAPIDS 26.0 16.8 17.4 18.4 19.3 19.5 20.0 21.8 22.8 25.8
LITTLE BLUE RIVER
HOLLENBERG 19.0 2.6 2.9 3.3 3.5 4.1 4.7 4.9 5.7 6.7
BARNES 16.0 4.7 5.5 6.4 6.8 7.8 8.4 9.3 9.9 13.2
MILL CREEK - WASHINGTON COUNTY
WASHINGTON 18.0 2.0 4.2 5.9 6.3 7.5 8.2 9.1 10.4 14.5
BLACK VERMILLION RIVER
FRANKFORT 19.0 6.3 8.8 9.6 10.6 11.0 13.6 14.7 18.2 19.2
FANCY CREEK
RANDOLPH 16.0 7.2 8.1 8.5 9.0 9.6 10.2 10.8 11.2 12.4
VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOPEKA FOR MORE WEATHER AND
RIVER INFORMATION INCLUDING GRAPHS OF PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS.
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