Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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000
FNUS28 KWNS 012051
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 PM CDT WED APR 01 2015

VALID 031200Z - 091200Z

AN ACTIVE FIRE-WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SWRN
CONUS AND PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ATTENDANT CHANNELS OF STRONG
MID/LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST/CNTRL CONUS. THE SFC RESPONSE WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ROUNDS
OF CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE GREAT BASIN TOWARDS THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS.
WITH ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THIS PORTION OF THE
CONUS...DEEP DIURNAL MIXING EACH DAY WILL PROMOTE GUSTY WINDS AND
ENHANCED FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS.

...D3/FRI -- PORTIONS OF SERN NM AND THE TRANS-PECOS/PERMIAN
BASIN...
AS A SFC LOW SHIFTS EAST TOWARDS THE MS/OH VALLEYS...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS.
TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY COOLER ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN NM/WRN TX
FOLLOWING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSAGE...RESULTING IN RH VALUES
HIGH ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST
OF NERN NM/TX PANHANDLE. NONETHELESS...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OVERLAP
BETWEEN LOW RH VALUES AND GUSTY N/NELY FLOW TO FOSTER CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TRANS-PECOS/PERMIAN BASIN AND SERN NM. IN
TURN...THE PREVIOUS 40-PERCENT DELINEATION WAS MAINTAINED WITH MINOR
EDITS.

...D4/SAT -- PORTIONS OF THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AND FOUR CORNERS
REGION...
FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES ON
D4/SAT. AT THE SFC...A BROAD TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT BASIN
NEWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...WHILE HIGH PRES SHIFTS SE TOWARDS
THE TN VALLEY. THE RESULTANT SFC PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS WILL FOSTER GUSTY SLY FLOW. THIS RESPONSE...CONCOMITANT
WITH DEEP DIURNAL MIXING...WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASED FIRE-WX THREAT
ONCE AGAIN. ONE POTENTIAL CAVEAT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF WETTING RAINS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE PRIOR 1-2 DAYS.
AS SUCH...WILL NOT UPGRADE ANY PORTION OF THE 40-PERCENT DELINEATION
IN THIS REGION WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. ELSEWHERE...WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO EXIST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND DRY
WLY FLOW WILL POTENTIALLY RESULT IN RH VALUES FALLING TO CRITICAL
LEVELS DURING THE DAY.

...D5-D8/SUN-WED -- SWRN STATES...
AS A MEAN TROUGH ALOFT PROGRESSES EWD OVER THE SWRN CONUS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...AN ATTENDANT CHANNEL OF ENHANCED UPPER/MID-LEVEL
FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OVERLAP OF CRITICALLY LOW RH
VALUES AND STRONG WINDS EACH DAY. FURTHERMORE...MEDIUM-RANGE
DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT SUCH
THAT THE PREVIOUS 40-PERCENT DELINEATIONS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED...AND
ANOTHER APPENDED FOR THE D8/WED PERIOD OVER PORTIONS OF WRN TX/SRN
NM. ALSO...A 70-PERCENT CRITICAL DELINEATION HAS BEEN ADDED AROUND
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION FOR D5/SUN...AS GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY
SIGNALED AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS IN THIS
AREA.

..PICCA.. 04/01/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...



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