Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGPN40 KWNM 270212
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
712 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

AN INLAND LOW PRES TROF OVER SRN CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO COMBINE
WITH HIGH PRES W OF THE PZ6 WATERS TO PRODUCE NW WINDS UP TO 35 KT
ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE PZ6 WATERS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
TONIGHT TO ABOUT 25 KT BY EARLY MON. BY LATE TUE NIGHT THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL SHIFT N TO THE AREA W OF POINT REYES. MINIMAL
GALES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE PZ6 WATERS BY LATE TUE NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE
INTO FRI AS THE THERMAL TROF STRENGTHENS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. FARTHER N...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE PZ5 WATERS MON NIGHT WITH MINIMAL GALES ALONG THE
FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL THEN DIMINISH ACROSS THE PZ5 WATERS BY TUE.
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE PZ5 WATERS WED.
CURRENT WARNINGS LOOK REASONABLE AND FEW CHANGES SHOULD BE NEEDED
ON THE NEXT OFFSHORE FORECAST.

THE ENP LOOKS REASONABLE WITH THE SEAS AND WILL BE FOLLOWED FAIRLY
CLOSELY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

BASED ON 12Z GUID SUITE NO MAJOR CHANGES IN FCST PREFERENCE THIS
AFTN. LAST NGT THE OVRNGT SHIFT MADE THE CHANGE IN THE GRIDS/TEXT
TO BE BASED ON GFS GUID - 30M WINDS - THRUT. SEE NO REASON TO
CHANGE AT THIS PT SAVE FOR UPDATING WITH THE LTST 12Z OUTPUT.

INITIALLY WL CONT TO CARRY GLW HEADLINES ACRS THE FAR NE-ERN PZ5
WTRS AND FAR SRN CAL ZNS. WRMFNT OVR PZ5 SHUD CLR E OF THE AREA
ERLY TNGT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AFTER PASSAGE. FARTHER S GALES
XPCTD TO CONT INTO SUN NGT BFR PRES GRAD EASES AND WINDS DIMINISH.

ANOTHER VERY BRIEF RND OF GALES THEN XPCTD ACRS PZ5 - LOW CONFID -
AS KONA LOW EJECTS NE AND PHASES WITH UPR TROF ROUNDING THE BASE
OF AN UPR LOW ACRS THE GLFAK. 12Z MDLS - SMLR TO THE 00Z - HAVE
CONT A TREND TWDS A STGR SOLN AS THE SFC LOW PASSES JUST NW OF THE
WASH WTRS. FOR SECOND CONSECUTIVE CYCLE THE ECMWF IS THE STGR AND
SLOWER SOLN...SMLR TO THE OLD 00Z GFS WAY BACK FROM 24/00Z CYCLE.
12Z ECMWF RMNS OUTLIER - BOTH INTENSITY AND TIMING - COMPARED TO
GEM/UKMET/GFS.

AFTER CDFNT FROPA TUE NGT A FAMILIAR PATTERN WL RETURN TO THE
EPAC. THAT IS HIGH PRES RIDGING WILL NOSE E-WARD ALONG 140W AS A
THERMAL TROF DVLPS THEN INTENSIFIES/EXPANDS ALONG THE CAL CST.
RESULTANT PRES GRAD SHUD BE STG ENUF TO EASILY SUPPORT AT LEAST
MINIMAL GALES DURING THIS TIME FRAME FROM LATE TUE NGT PERSISTING
THRUT THE RMNDR OF THE FCST.

SEAS...SINCE FCST IS BASED ON THE 12Z GFS WL BE STAYING FAIRLY
CLOSE TO 12Z ENP SIG WVHTS.

EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
.PZZ800...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER...
     GALE MON NIGHT.
.PZZ900...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER...
     GALE MON NIGHT.
.PZZ905...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CAPE LOOKOUT...
     GALE MON NIGHT.
.PZZ815...INNER WATERS FROM FLORENCE OR TO POINT ST. GEORGE...
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
.PZZ820...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ST. GEORGE TO POINT ARENA...
     GALE POSSIBLE THU INTO FRI NIGHT.
.PZZ825...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ARENA TO PIGEON POINT...
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT.
.PZZ830...INNER WATERS FROM PIGEON POINT TO POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS...
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT.
.PZZ835...INNER WATERS FROM POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SANTA CRUZ ISLAND, CA...
     GALE TONIGHT.
.PZZ840...INNER WATERS FROM SANTA CRUZ ISLAND, CA TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND, CA...
     GALE TONIGHT.

$$

.FORECASTER NOLT/COLLINS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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