Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS48 KWNS 050916
SWOD48
SPC AC 050915

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0415 AM CDT TUE MAY 05 2015

VALID 081200Z - 131200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN EARLY ON DAY 4 WILL MOVE EWD
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY 4-8 TIME FRAME...WITH GUIDANCE
GENERALLY CONSISTENT REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH
SATURDAY/9TH. THEREAFTER...VARIABILITY INCREASES REGARDING THE
INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF THIS WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AS IT
LIFTS NEWD. IN ADDITION...MESOSCALE COMPLEXITIES RESULTING FROM THE
INFLUENCE OF PRIOR CONVECTION LEND ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY TO THE
FORECAST.

NEVERTHELESS...THE PRESENCE OF SUBSTANTIAL SFC-BASED
BUOYANCY...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 45-60 KTS OF MID-LEVEL
FLOW SUGGESTS THAT SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ALONG AND IN
ADVANCE OF A DRYLINE FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS SWD ACROSS THE ERN TX
PANHANDLE/WRN OK SWD POTENTIALLY AS FAR AS CENTRAL TX...WITH UPSCALE
GROWTH POSSIBLE WITH TIME AND EWD EXTENT. LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY GIVEN
DEEP SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...WITH SOME RISK FOR TORNADOES
DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVENING.

ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER FLOW OVERSPREADS
THE DRYLINE AS A SFC LOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE TX PANHANDLE. SVR
TSTMS APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP VCTY OF THE DRYLINE AND MOVE NEWD
DURING THE AFTN/EVENING WITH ALL SEVERE HAZARDS POSSIBLE. HIGHER
PROBABILITIES MAY BE EVENTUALLY BE WARRANTED SATURDAY AS MESOSCALE
DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.

BEYOND SATURDAY...SOME SVR THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES EAST...HOWEVER TIMING/LOCATION UNCERTAINTIES PRECLUDE
HIGHLIGHTING SPECIFIC AREAS ATTM.

..BUNTING.. 05/05/2015


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