Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 070241
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070240
MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-IAZ000-070415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0528
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0940 PM CDT WED MAY 06 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL KS...SE NEB

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 136...

VALID 070240Z - 070415Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 136 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE LATE THIS EVENING
AND MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LARGE HAIL AND
WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS. A TORNADO
MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THE MORE DOMINANT CELLS.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1000 MB LOW OVER WRN KS
WITH STRONG SLY FLOW OVER CNTRL AND NRN KS. A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS LOCATED FROM CNTRL KS EXTENDING NWD INTO SE NEB. A LINE
OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED AT THE NRN END OF THE
MOIST TONGUE ALONG A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS ANALYZED ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN
HALF OF KANSAS WHERE MLCAPE IS IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. THIS
COMBINED WITH A STRENGTHENING 40 TO 55 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL HELP AN
MCS TO ORGANIZE. THE HASTINGS WSR-88D VWP SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 40
KT WITH SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BELOW 1 KM. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES LATE THIS
EVENING. DUE TO A NWD ADVECTION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION FROM SCNTRL TO SE KS...THE SEVERE THREAT COULD
DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF WW 136 WHERE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL COULD EXIST.

..BROYLES/MEAD.. 05/07/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON   37229745 37449848 38439890 40129915 41089842 41249599
            40259549 38489605 37379683 37229745




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