Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 192057
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
357 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
POSITIONED FROM SOUTHWEST TEXAS THROUGH WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO
EASTERN KANSAS. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS OVER
SOUTHERN COLORADO YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD AND WAS
LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA PER LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TWO DISTINCT VORT MAXES...ONE WITH THE UPPER
LOW AND A SECOND TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW WAS AIDING IN THE
INITIATION OF THE CONVECTION.

CURRENT THINKING ON STORM PROGRESSION AND SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS
EVENING REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME FROM THE LATE MORNING FORECAST
DISCUSSION. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG WITH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO BE MAINLY OVER
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...WHERE INSTABILITY
REMAINS THE GREATEST OVER THE CWA. ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNING
HAS LIMITED THE INSTABILITY RECOVERY WHICH COULD LIMIT THE OVERALL
THUNDERSTORM/SEVERE POTENTIAL. COLD TEMPS ALOFT ALONG WITH THE
FORCING FROM THE TWO VORT MAXES WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A LIMITED
SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER ALL OF THE CWA INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
ELEVATED SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN
THREATS...THOUGH WITH THE AMOUNT OF VORTICITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE
AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THE TORNADIC POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE PRIMARILY OVER FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. THE CURRENT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH GOES TIL O1Z.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION AND
THROUGH THE CWA THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES OFF TO THE
EAST AND GETS ABSORBED WITHIN A CLOSED LOW DROPING OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS EVENING...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY EXITING THE CWA
AROUND 06Z. ANY REMAIN PRECIP AFTER 06Z LOOKS TO BE FAR ENOUGH
FROM THE INSTABILITY THAT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE
OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE FINALLY EXITING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 15-30 MPH
RANGE WILL BE CAPABLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH SPEEDS IN THE
10-20 MPH RANGE OVERNIGHT. DRIER AND COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE WAS
LAGGING A BIT BEHIND THE FRONT AND SHOULD MOVE INTO THE CWA
OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPS MONDAY MORNING LOOK TO BE IN THE 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE
CWA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE DROPS
THROUGH THE PLAINS TUESDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RAIN CHANCES ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE CWA
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASES WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SAGS SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO MOVE INTO/THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR
A LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT...PUSHING IT INTO THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INSTEAD OF DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY AS IT WAS PROGGED 24-HRS AGO. THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AND
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER FRIDAY.
WITH THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE CWA THURSDAY...GREATER THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SHOULD BE CLOSER TO THE FRONT AS COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE CWA. THE FRONT ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL DRYLINE LOOKS TO LIFT
BACK NORTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO SPREAD BACK NORTHWARD OVER THE CWA. AGAIN
A LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST PUSHES OFF TO THE
EAST OF THE CWA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   46  66  47  68 /  20   0  10  30
FSM   48  68  48  70 /  40   0  10  30
MLC   47  69  45  70 /  10   0  10  30
BVO   42  67  41  68 /  20   0  10  30
FYV   43  62  40  65 /  50   0   0  30
BYV   45  62  42  66 /  60   0   0  30
MKO   44  67  46  68 /  20   0  10  30
MIO   44  64  42  66 /  40   0   0  30
F10   45  67  45  68 /  20   0  20  30
HHW   48  70  46  71 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....20





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