Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 171508
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1008 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED WEST OF THE
AREA...AND TRACKED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. BY MID MORNING...THE STRONGER STORMS HAD
WEAKENED AS THEY LIFTED NORTH INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI. ADJUSTED QPF AMOUNTS UP ACROSS THE NORTH FOR THE MORNING
STORMS...AND LOWERED POPS BEHIND THE EXITING LINE OF STORMS AS
THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN PRECIP ACTIVITY UNTIL THE SECOND ROUND
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
TEMPS AS CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY RECOVER AS THE PRECIP MOVES OUT
OF THE AREA AND CEILINGS RISE. THIS WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA...CREATING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SOME OF THE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. THE BETTER
CHANCES WILL REMAIN FURTHER WEST...ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF PONCA CITY MAKING
VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS THIS MORNING. STORMS WILL LIKELY
MOVE INTO PAWNEE AND OSAGE COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE AIR-
MASS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OR ANY LINGERING MCV TYPE FEATURES FROM THIS
MORNINGS CONVECTION. BETTER STORM CHANCES EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS MAIN UPPER LOW APPROACHES WITH A LEAST A LIMITED
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS/HEAVY RAINFALL. BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE ON SUNDAY AS INSTABILITY/SHEAR
INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH SWEEPS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

COOL/DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEHIND COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ONCE AGAIN INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE/LATE PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES BACK NORTH IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  61  77  57 /  50  70  60  40
FSM   78  63  76  59 /  50  70  70  40
MLC   77  62  76  58 /  50  70  60  40
BVO   77  59  77  56 /  50  70  60  40
FYV   74  59  71  55 /  50  70  70  40
BYV   74  59  70  56 /  60  70  70  40
MKO   77  61  74  55 /  50  70  60  40
MIO   76  59  73  54 /  70  70  60  40
F10   76  62  76  57 /  50  70  60  40
HHW   77  63  75  59 /  50  70  60  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16




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