Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 312324
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
624 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK AND WESTERN AR...WITH THE BEST CHANCES AT
KMLC. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 06Z. MVFR/OCCASIONAL
IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT...WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER 18Z ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ATMOSPHERE PRIMED FOR THUNDER LATE AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT
..ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I40. NEAR DOUBLE DIGIT NEGATIVE
LI LATE AFTERNOON.  HR3  BRINGS SECOND THUNDER CLUSTER
LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. POPS RAISED ESP SOUTH TONIGHT.
HAIL PARAMETERS PARTICULARLY ROBUST.

WESTERLY STEERING FLOW BRINGS H500 WAVE MIGRATING FROM
SOUTHWEST  STATES  DIRECTLY  OVER OUR REGION WEDNESDAY.
NEXT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT AFFECTS OUR REGION
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  APPEARS  COOL FRONT WILL
ENTER FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. FRONT STRETCHES OUT WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT  BEFORE FINALLY
PULLING AWAY FRIDAY.  ALL THIS RESULTS IN AN UNSETTLED
WETTER THAN NORMAL PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY.  MOST POTENT
STORMS... AFTER THIS EVENING... PROBABLY THURSDAY WITH
THE COLD FRONT.

DRY FROM FRIDAY NOON THROUGH ABOUT SUNDAY NOON AS H500
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS. ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIP
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH RETURNING MOISTURE ON LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   59  82  65  82 /  20  20  20  50
FSM   59  78  61  81 /  60  40  20  30
MLC   63  80  67  81 /  60  30  20  30
BVO   51  82  62  79 /  10  20  20  60
FYV   50  74  60  75 /  20  30  20  30
BYV   52  74  60  76 /  10  30  20  30
MKO   58  77  63  78 /  50  30  20  40
MIO   55  79  64  75 /   0  30  20  50
F10   59  79  65  81 /  60  30  20  30
HHW   61  77  63  80 /  60  50  30  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18




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