Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KTSA 041039
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
539 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL AREA TAF SITES
THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITHIN LOW LEVEL JET AXIS CONTINUE TO
EXPAND ON AREA RADAR IMAGERY THOUGH LIKELY HIGH BASED AND ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL REMAIN ISOLATED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
OTHERWISE WARM TEMPS AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY
WHILE CONVECTION REMAINS LARGELY FOCUSED TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

SUBTLE EASTERLY WAVE NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF BASIN WILL
ROTATE NORTHWESTWARD AND PARTLY AID IN DEVELOPING PRECIP ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SPREADING EASTWARD
INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN OK GIVEN
THE DEEP MOISTURE DRAWN NORTHWARD BY THIS TIME. WIDESPREAD PRECIP /
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE FORECAST PATTERN REMAINS CONSISTENT FOR MID TO LATE WEEK WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVERSPREADING THE PLAINS. SUBTLE
DISTURBANCES WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL ACT UPON A MOIST AND WEAKLY
CAPPED AIRMASS TO CREATE NEAR DAILY DEEP CONVECTION. THE
ORIGINATING SFC BOUNDARIES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL WEST AND
NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT SPREADS THIS FAR EAST
OR SOUTH LIKELY BEING IN ITS WEAKENING PHASE. THE LARGER SCALE
WAVE IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE PLAINS BY LATE NEXT
WEEKEND...AND IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THAT WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY FORECAST TO RETURN.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...10




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.