Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 310449
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1149 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO SOUTHEAST OK AND
NORTHWEST AR OVERNIGHT...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER
15Z. A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY EVENING
WITH THE KMLC/KFSM HAVING THE BEST CHANCES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO CREEP NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OK THIS EVENING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. DEW POINTS
APPROACHING 60 AS FAR NORTH AS I-40 HAVE RESULTED IN SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...HOWEVER AREA 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT CAP. WITH DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUING TO ADVECT NORTH
AND THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN WNW FLOW ALOFT THE CAP
SHOULD ERODE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS NEAR AND SOUTH OF
I-40 LATER TONIGHT AS FORECAST. ONLY CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST
HAVE BEEN TO RAISE TEMPS AND DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENING FOR ALL SITES. AREA
OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS TX WILL EXPAND NORTH OVERNIGHT...WITH
MVFR/OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE. SOME QUESTION AS TO
HOW FAR NORTH THE LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP...AND WILL INCLUDE
A TEMPO AT KBVO/KTUL/KRVS TO REFLECT THE UNCERTAINTY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND UPPER TROUGH OFF
COAST OF BAJA WILL REMAIN TIED  AS MAJOR TROUGH EASTERN
PACIFIC KICKS BOTH EAST INTO MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MIDWEEK.

UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST TIER U.S.
COUPLED WITH THE  WEST TO EAST  FRONT NOW IN TEXAS WILL
PRODUCE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EASTERN OK..AND NORTHWEST
AR THROUGH MIDWEEK.  THUNDER/SHOWERS MOST LIKELY DURING
THAT PERIOD SOUTH OF I40.

A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE MAIN FOCUS
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

A SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SATURDAY & SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL END WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
SUNDAY / SUNDAY NIGHT  WITH A RETURN TO MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   55  80  59  80 /  10  20  20  40
FSM   56  81  60  77 /  10  30  30  50
MLC   61  76  62  77 /  20  40  40  40
BVO   49  80  53  80 /   0  10  20  30
FYV   49  76  52  74 /  10  20  20  40
BYV   52  74  53  73 /  10  20  10  30
MKO   56  76  58  77 /  10  20  30  40
MIO   51  77  53  77 /   0  10  10  30
F10   59  77  59  79 /  10  30  40  30
HHW   62  76  59  76 /  20  40  30  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...18




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