Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 250659
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
159 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY SLIDING EAST
OVER CENTRAL KS THIS MORNING. A PACIFIC COOL FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
LOW...DRYING THE AIR AND VEERING WINDS AROUND TO WESTERLY. AS IS
OFTEN THE CASE WITH PACIFIC FRONTS...DOWNSLOPE COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING AND NEAR FULL INSOLATION WILL NEGATE ANY COOLING BEHIND
THE FRONT. A VERY NICE DAY IS ON TAP...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING WELL
INTO THE 80S WITH A DRY WEST WIND. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS SOUTH ON SUNDAY.

SOME UPPER JET ENERGY IS NOW PUNCHING INTO THE CENTRAL WEST COAST
THIS MORNING...AND THIS ENERGY WILL EVENTUALLY DIVE DOWN INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST BEFORE MID LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIFT OVER THE REGION WILL
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION OCCURS IN
ADVANCE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM ATOP THE SOUTHWARD SAGGING BACK DOOR
FRONT. ELEVATED STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT FOR OUR AREA. THE THUNDER RISK WILL DROP OFF GOING INTO
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND THIS WAS THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. RAIN CHANCES END BY TUESDAY EVENING AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.

LOOKS LIKE MAY WILL COME IN LIKE A LAMB THIS YEAR. RIDGING ALOFT
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL KEEP THINGS QUIET FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   86  55  76  53 /   0  10  10  50
FSM   85  56  81  54 /   0  10  10  40
MLC   84  56  85  58 /   0   0  10  50
BVO   85  53  72  52 /   0  10  10  40
FYV   80  52  74  50 /  10  10  10  30
BYV   79  52  68  48 /  10  10  10  20
MKO   85  55  80  54 /   0  10  10  50
MIO   82  52  70  49 /  10  10  10  20
F10   84  55  81  55 /   0   0  10  60
HHW   85  55  86  58 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30





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