Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 050817
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
317 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS SET TO BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL DRAG AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE OVER AN INCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 75. THIS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES FROM THE PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVES SOUTH FROM THE
NORTHWEST UNITED STATES INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL ALLOW A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FROM MID-WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL TAP INTO A STREAM OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE THAT WILL HELP BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION AS SUBTLE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
THE WET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE PLAINS. THE CHANCES OF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE GREATER LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM MID-WEEK THROUGH
THE WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80  65  78  67 /  20  80  60  40
FSM   83  63  81  63 /  30  60  40  10
MLC   79  66  77  67 /  40  70  50  20
BVO   81  64  79  65 /  20  80  50  40
FYV   78  60  76  61 /  20  50  50  10
BYV   80  62  78  62 /  20  20  40  10
MKO   79  63  77  63 /  30  80  60  30
MIO   81  63  78  63 /  20  70  60  20
F10   79  65  77  65 /  30  80  50  40
HHW   79  65  78  64 /  50  60  50  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....10





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