Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 162310
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
610 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
INTO FRIDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT REMNANTS OF THURSDAY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WELL TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. CHANCES
ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AREAWIDE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION HAS BLOSSOMED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITHIN THE REALM
OF FORCING PROVIDED BY THE LARGE CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. FURTHER SOUTH...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
EXPAND AS INFLUENCE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL JET OVERSPREADS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AMID UNSEASONABLY DEEP MOISTURE. BOTH OF THESE
ZONES WILL REMAIN CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THE
LOCAL AREA WILL LARGELY INHERIT THE REMNANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
FROM BOTH REGIONS. NUMERICAL SOLUTIONS ALL SEEM TO FAVOR FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
THIS WOULD REMAIN WITH A PERIOD OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY BUT
MEAGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER. THE RESULT WILL
LIKELY BE STRONG TO OCCASIONAL SEVERE STORMS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL EDGE CLOSER TO THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES ALSO DRAW NEARER. THE
RESULTANT FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE A BIT MORE WHILE STORM
ORIGINATION POINTS WILL BE CLOSER...HOWEVER THE INFLUENCE FROM
SATURDAY MORNING STORMS MAY STABILIZE CONDITIONS TO LIMIT SEVERE
POTENTIAL. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE REFINED AS THE TIME FRAME
APPROACHES. BY SUNDAY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA WHILE
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY IS LIKELY TO BE IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD FAVOR WESTERN ARKANSAS
AND POINTS FURTHER EAST. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP BENEATH THE
COLD MID LEVEL CORE...HOWEVER INSTABILITY WILL BE DECREASING WITH
TIME AS DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR FOLLOWS THE FRONT.

COOLER TEMPS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE DEVELOPING
WARM FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY
WORK NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION BY LATE NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06





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