Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 022313
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
613 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL A ALL SITES THROUGHOUT
THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE RECENT QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING PERSISTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO EARLY MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW SHOULD BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAYS ALREADY ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS...WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING AS THE SURFACE HIGH IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES PULLS FARTHER TO THE EAST. WIND GUSTS
TOMORROW WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE...BUT SHOULD NOT
BE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.

BEGINNING DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK...SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO AND PARKS ITSELF IN THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL LEAD
TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MUCH OF OKLAHOMA
AND ARKANSAS. MONDAY AND MUCH OF TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT
INCREASED CLOUD COVER DURING THESE DAYS SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TOMORROW...WHILE ALSO LEADING TO
INCREASED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

BEGINNING PERHAPS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MORE LIKELY
TUESDAY NIGHT...A SERIES OF IMPULSES IN THE MAIN UPPER FLOW WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ABOUT EVERY 18 TO 24 HOURS.
INITIALLY...THE PRIMARY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS AND THE BEST WIND
FIELDS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH
WILL KEEP THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. BY
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGHER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT THE BETTER WIND FIELDS STILL LOOK TO
RESIDE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION...WHICH WOULD SERVE AS
A CONTINUED LIMITING FACTOR.

TEMPERATURES FROM MID WEEK ON SHOULD FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
FOR THE MOST PART...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS AND DAYTIME PRECIPITATION ON
WEDNESDAY SHOULD LEAD TO ONE DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL VALUES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO INCREASING
MOISTURE.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06





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