Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 161525
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1025 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...

VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE...EVEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WHICH HAVE BEEN THE LAST FOG HOLDOUTS. WITH
THE NOTED OVERALL IMPROVEMENT...THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...EVEN WITH A FEW OBS SITES STILL AT A QUARTER
MILE VISIBILITY. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...WITH MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...AND A SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE RED RIVER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
EXCEPT FOR KMLC AND POSSIBLY KFYV...MAINLY LIFR CONDITIONS IN
DENSE FOG WILL PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE TAF VALID
PERIOD. RAPID IMPROVEMENT IS THEN EXPECTED WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING TO ALL SITES BY LATE MORNING. AT LEAST SOME LIGHT FOG
REDUCING VISIBILITIES INTO THE MVFR RANGE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH THE ARKANSAS TAF SITES MOST LIKELY TO BE
AFFECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE TO AFFECT A
PORTION OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SEVERAL SITES PERIODICALLY REPORTING VIS OF 1/4-1/2
MILE. SHORT TERM HI RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOG WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AROUND 13-14Z WITH QUICK IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER. ENOUGH
SUN WILL PREVAIL TODAY TO ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM SIGNIFICANTLY THIS
AFTERNOON COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS.

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO DO SO AS IT CUTS
OFF AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RESULT WILL BE
GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES LIKELY OCCURRING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
COLDER TEMPS ALOFT DURING THIS TIME WILL RESULT IN SOME THREAT OF
LARGE HAIL...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE.

SYSTEM SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR OUT BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER AND A
BIT COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS DIFFER ON DEGREE OF
MOISTURE RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT AT LEAST A SMALL
THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR TUE/WED.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22




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