Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 210032
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
732 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE EXPANDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TONIGHT AS THE LAST FEW
RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SPREADING THE PRECIP ACROSS
A WIDER SWATH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE...CURRENT
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS ON TRACK.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE
SURFACE WILL PRODUCE MID CLOUD AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...POSSIBLY
A FEW STORMS...BY TUESDAY MORNING. CIGS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR
RANGE HOWEVER.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDINESS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE APPROACHES THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND WILL STALL NEAR THE RED RIVER. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL THEN RETURN NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL
BE SOME SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
IF EARLY DAY CONVECTION IS NOT TOO EXTENSIVE...ALTHOUGH THE
GREATER THREAT MAY BE TO OUR SOUTHWEST WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE
MAXIMIZED. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DAY OF GREATEST CONCERN IN OUR
AREA AS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM NEW MEXICO INTO
KANSAS AND A DRYLINE BEGINS TO SURGE EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY BUT MOST OF THE WEEKEND
WILL BE DRY BEFORE LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10





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