Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 010819
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
319 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF CONVECTION ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA. ACTIVITY MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA ORIGINATED IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA YESTERDAY
EVENING...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY EARLY THIS
MORNING AS A RESULT OF A GENERAL DECREASE IN INSTABILITY OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS IN THIS REGION. LOCALLY INTENSE UPDRAFTS IN THE
ONGOING LINE COULD STILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS
OCCASIONAL SMALL HAIL...BUT OVERALL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS
DECREASING WITH TIME. ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...RECENT
DEVELOPMENT ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE EARLIER MCS IS OCCURRING
IN A REGION OF INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY...AND GIVEN THE
RADAR PRESENTATION AND TRENDS...LIKELY THE PRESENCE OF AN MCV. THE
EXPECTATION IS THAT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR FARTHER EAST
ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER THIS MORNING...A LINE OF THINKING THAT IS
SUPPORTED BY RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND INSTABILITY TRENDS.
ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH THE NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA STORMS.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT...THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 44...AS A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THE OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
SHOULD BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO LOWER INSTABILITY AND
SLIGHTLY LOWER DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAYS AS A RESULT OF
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND DAYTIME PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS. PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA FROM TULSA TO THE NORTHWEST
MAY GET CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS HIGHS THOUGH.

THIS BRINGS US TO THURSDAY...WHICH WILL FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEVERE WEATHER IN THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING NEAR
AND NORTH OF THE KANSAS BORDER EARLY THURSDAY MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT. COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE DAY AS A RESULT OF
AN INCREASING CAP THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS DAYTIME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AT LEAST LATE AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS LATER. BOTH
THE COLD FRONT IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND TO A LESSER EXTENT...THE
DRYLINE NEAR THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR COULD SERVE AS POTENTIAL
AREAS OF DEVELOPMENT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT UNTIL THE COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH HIGH
INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE. TORNADOES NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY IMMEDIATELY NORTHEAST OF THE
SURFACE LOW ALONG THE SLOW MOVING FRONT. IN SUMMARY...OVERALL
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAY END UP BEING FAIRLY LOW...BUT THE
CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER END SEVERE WEATHER IN WHATEVER
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IS FAIRLY HIGH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE...DRY WEATHER REMAINS LIKELY FOR THE FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD. INCREASING MOISTURE WITH A
RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO A CORRESPONDING
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. EARLY NEXT WEEK...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A RETURN AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT SET
TO MOVE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AND INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  64  80  56 /  30  10  30  70
FSM   79  63  80  64 /  40  30  20  40
MLC   81  65  83  61 /  30  20  20  30
BVO   82  62  78  48 /  20  20  30  70
FYV   76  62  74  59 /  40  20  30  60
BYV   76  61  75  60 /  40  20  30  70
MKO   79  63  80  59 /  30  10  20  50
MIO   80  63  75  53 /  30  20  30  70
F10   79  64  81  59 /  30  10  20  50
HHW   79  64  81  64 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....22




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