Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 032300
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD... WITH VARYING DEGREES OF
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET BUT
WILL INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

OVERALL EXPECTATIONS OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO REMAIN UNCHANGED
FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TOMORROW...AND EVEN INTO TUESDAY ACROSS
ESPECIALLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A
TRANSITION TO A WETTER...SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW PATTERN BY LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.

MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE LEADING
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...AND THEREFORE...LATER ONSET OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...WILL CARRY A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS /AT MOST/
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE HEAVIEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE STILL LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SHORT LIVED LULL
SHOULD OCCUR LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE THE
SLOWER MOVING UPPER LOW BECOMES FULLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. ONCE THIS HAPPENS...ADDITIONAL
IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS AND INTERACT WITH THE CONTINUED MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN THE
REGION...LEADING TO ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATE
THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DESPITE IT BEING PRIMETIME FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION...WITH BETTER WIND
FIELDS REMAINING NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE
RELATIVE LACK OF SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY.

THIS PERIOD OF WET WEATHER CURRENTLY LOOKS TO HAVE POTENTIAL
POSITIVE IMPACTS ON THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF TULSA...WITH THE HIGHEST FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOCATED IN THIS EXACT PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WOULD BE
GOOD NEWS FOR AREAS THAT MISSED OUT ON THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL LAST MONTH.

TEMPERATURE WISE...WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST
AFTERNOON OF THE PERIOD DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND
LINGERING PRECIPITATION...WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED ON MOST OTHER DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06




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