Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 241723
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1223 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

...UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OK INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH BETTER CHANCES NEAR
THE KMLC/KFSM TAF SITES BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT THE REMAINING TAF SITES
ARE LOW...AND WILL ONLY MENTION VCTS FOR NORTHEAST AR AT
THIS TIME. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS EVENING
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO BE COMPLICATED...AS ONGOING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN OK/NORTHERN TX WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT ON MOISTURE RETURN/INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OK AND
WESTERN AR GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN TX INTO
SOUTHEASTERN OK WILL TEND TO STRENGTHEN INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH
ADDITIONAL DRYLINE STORMS FIRING ACROSS TX AND MOVING EAST LATE
TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP INTO
CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN OK GIVEN THE VERY FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR PROFILES. TIMING
LOOKS TO BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FARTHER NORTH...MEANING MUCH OF
NORTHEASTERN AND EAST CENTRAL OK ALONG WITH NORTHWEST AR...REMAINS
HIGHLY CONDITIONAL. A DIFFUSE DRYLINE WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS FAR
WESTERN OK THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL REMAIN WEST OF INTERSTATE 35.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SIGNALS THAT STORMS WILL FAIL
TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH DRYLINE...AND THIS IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY.
HOWEVER...IF ANY STORM CAN DEVELOP...THEN FORECAST WIND SHEAR IS
SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING STORMS AS THEY RACE NORTHEAST OFF THE
DRYLINE.

TO RESTATE...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF
SEVERE WEATHER LATER TODAY. WE`LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR INTO THE
AFTENROON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   60  84  55  76 /  30  10  10  10
FSM   60  87  58  82 /  50  10  10  10
MLC   61  83  56  86 /  40  10  10  10
BVO   60  84  51  73 /  30  10  10  10
FYV   58  79  52  75 /  40  10  10  10
BYV   59  79  52  68 /  40  10  10  10
MKO   58  83  55  79 /  30  10  10  10
MIO   60  80  52  71 /  50  10  10  10
F10   59  83  56  80 /  30  10  10  10
HHW   62  85  56  86 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18




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