Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 270453
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1153 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... OVERCAST SKIES WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES...
GENERALLY REMAINING VFR. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT... AFFECTING EASTERN
OKLAHOMA SITES. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REACH
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES BY AROUND 14Z... AND FSM AROUND 9Z.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CREATE TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS AT ANY SITE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
OK AND NORTH TX AS DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SPREADS OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF
THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. SAMPLED MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AT 00Z REMAIN FAIRLY STEEP OUTSIDE OF ONGOING CONVECTION. SE
OKLAHOMA IS RETAINING LOW MID 60S SFC DEWPOINTS AS ITS REMAINS IN
A ZONE BETWEEN THE MORE TROPICAL WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTH TX...AND
THE TRUE COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE TX PANHANDLE THROUGH NE
OK. AN AXIS OF ELEVATED MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ALLOWING FOR APPRECIABLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO BE REALIZED WITH
DEVELOPING CONVECTION...AND AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40
APPEAR MOST LIKELY TO MAINTAIN THE BULK OF INSTABILITY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH WILL SUPPORT A LIMITED RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER. THE UPDATED FORECAST WILL INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES A BIT
MORE FOR MUCH OF EASTERN OK GIVEN LATEST DATA...WITH OTHER
ELEMENTS REMAINING ON TRACK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06




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