Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 182327
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
627 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. WENT
WITH A TEMPO FOR THUNDER AT THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA TAF SITES
AT 04Z. THIS IS IN LINE WITH WHAT THE LATEST HRRR IS PROJECTING.
FOG WILL BE A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT AT THE NORTHWEST ARKSANS
SITES...COULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS BEFORE IMPROVING MID-MORNING
SUNDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO RESIDE THIS AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW A DRYLINE HAS SET UP OVER FAR
WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN TEXAS. SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE
CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO INITIATE DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
ALONG AND NEAR THIS DRYLINE...MOVING TO THE NORTH. TO THE EAST
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...THE PRECIP FROM
THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HAS SHIFTED OUT OF THE CWA WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW OUT WEST IS
EXPECTED TO FINALLY PUSH OUT INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND BECOME MORE
OF AN OPEN WAVE COMPARED TO THE CLOSED OFF LOW THAT IT HAS BEEN.
AS THE LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD...THE SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD MAKE
ITS WAY TOWARD AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT. THE GREATER
INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED CLOSER TO THE DRYLINE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH SHOULD AID IN CONVECTION WEAKENING AS IT
PUSHES INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ENOUGH SHEAR AND COLD
TEMPS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG WINDS BEGIN THE MAIN THREATS ACROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CLOUDY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS
HOLDING IN THE UPPER 50/LOW 60S SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPS SUNDAY
MORNING CLOSE TO THIS MORNING LOWS.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SUNDAY EVENING. AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CWA
WITH A LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AS THE CAP
LOOKS TO BE WEAK. AN ELEVATED SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND EXTENDING
EASTWARD WHERE THE WARMER TEMPS AND BETTER INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
LOCATED. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AGAIN LOOK TO BE THE MAIN
HAZARDS WITH ANY CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE
FRONT...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE THE COLD FRONT EXITING THE CWA
SUNDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW GETS ABSORBED INTO A SECOND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL AID IN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS BY MONDAY MORNING AND COOL HIGH TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
DRIER AIR OVER THE CWA WILL HELP TO DELAY THE NEXT PRECIP CHANCES
INTO TUESDAY AS A PIECE OF ENERGY DROPS DOWN THROUGH THE PLAINS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO MOVE INTO
THE CWA THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
BECOME THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE AND THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE CWA.
INCREASING MOISTURE...AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OF 100-130KT
PARALLEL TO THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY
OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO
BE POSSIBLE OVER THE REGION. TEMPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME LOOK TO BE
COOLER ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE FRONT AND WARMER TO THE SOUTH.
LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT TEMPS COULD BE COOLER THAN WHAT HAS
BEEN FORECAST WHICH COULD LIMITED THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATEST DATA AS THIS SYSTEM SETS UP
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...10




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