Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 061120
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
620 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
ONGOING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS WHILE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD. THEREAFTER ANY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EPXECTED TO BE MORE SCATTER DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON / EVENING HOURS. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY VARY FROM LOW
VFR TO MVFR LEVELS WITH A TREND TOWARD VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE
AFTERNOON FOR ALL LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES RETURN THOUGH NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS THE CURRENT NIGHT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING AS A MID-LEVEL LOW SPINS
OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY A
60 KNOT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.
THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
TO THE EAST THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. HOWEVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AS ANOTHER SUBTLE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AS A MID-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DIVES TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA. THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW BEGINS
TO PULL NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
AND SPREAD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE PLAINS PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FINALLY END MONDAY
AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST. THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO
4 INCHES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE UPWARDS OF 7 INCHES
OF RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD LEAD TO FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  66  80  66 /  70  50  40  70
FSM   79  63  83  67 /  80  20  30  30
MLC   77  66  79  67 /  80  30  30  40
BVO   77  66  80  63 /  60  50  40  70
FYV   76  61  78  63 /  80  30  40  40
BYV   77  63  80  64 /  70  20  40  40
MKO   75  63  78  65 /  80  30  30  50
MIO   75  64  79  63 /  80  30  40  70
F10   75  66  78  66 /  70  40  30  40
HHW   78  65  80  67 /  80  20  40  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07





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