Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 021547
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1047 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MINOR RIPPLE MOVING WEST->EAST PRODUCING MID LEVEL CLOUD
AND VIRGA OVER OSAGE AND PAWNEE COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. A
FEW SPRINKLES NOTED THIS PAST HOUR @ KPNC. FEW SPRINKLES
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION NORTH OF 412 INTO AFTERNOON HOURS.
GW


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE
VALID PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH TEMPS TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER. SFC RIDGING WILL BE
MAINTAINED THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF WHILE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARIES
REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST AND NORTH WHICH WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY
THROUGH MONDAY.

DATA REMAIN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A DEFINED WAVE THROUGH NORTHERN
MEXICO ON MONDAY AND LIFTING IT SHARPLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
PLAINS TUES - WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME
WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAINS LIKELY FOCUSED WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE PATTERN FOR LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE TROUGHING THROUGH THE
WESTERN STATES PLACING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS
ATOP A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. SUBTLE WAVES WITHIN THE FLOW LOOK TO
KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED ACROSS THE REGION THUS A CONTINUATION
OF DAILY PRECIP CHANCES...AND TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80  60  82  62 /   0  10   0  10
FSM   80  56  82  58 /   0  10  10  10
MLC   79  59  80  60 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   80  58  82  60 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   76  53  78  57 /   0  10  10  10
BYV   76  54  79  58 /   0  10  10  10
MKO   79  58  80  60 /   0  10   0  10
MIO   78  59  80  61 /  10  10  10  10
F10   79  59  80  60 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   79  56  80  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....22





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